I hate to think that I'm much more optisimstic than you (LOL), but the BIT specifically provides for payment of the "genuine value" of the expropriated investment, which is far in excess of costs:
"ARTICLE VII: Expropriation
Investments or returns of investors of either Contracting Party shall not be nationalized,
expropriated or subjected to measures having an effect equivalent to nationalization or
expropriation (hereinafter referred to as "expropriation") in the territory of the other
Contracting Party, except for a public purpose, under due process of law, in a
non-discriminatory manner and against prompt, adequate and effective compensation. Such
compensation shall be based on the genuine value of the investment or returns expropriated immediately before the expropriation or at the time the proposed expropriation became public knowledge, whichever is the earlier, shall be payable from the date of expropriation with interest at a normal commercial rate, shall be paid without delay and shall be effectively realizable and freely transferable."
IMO the issue is not how much we win at arbitration, it will be a staggering sum to most of us, the issue is financing the arbitration and how much dilution will be required. I have always assumed 100% dilution as a worst case, but still see us getting at least $2 a share after paying off notes and all expenses.
There are actually a number of other interesting issues with the BIT, including the MFN clause, that would provide us potentially a higher award based on the Russian BIT for example. I think that discussion of these details are a bit premature to discuss, as I still look to the financing cost issue as predominant at this point. Certainly, I think that the price does not reflect the ultimate reward due to the financing risk, although personally I would probably pick up another million shares if we approach .05.
The other interesting news to watch will be the Exxon and Conoco awards, although I think their cases are less compelling than GRZ and KRY.
