nobear, until we can get past the noteholder issue nothing else matters with kry.. the market is forecasting almost certain BK (hard to believe with an asset like the arb case)... but.. when it comes to arb valuation i'm trying to base the value on prior icsid awards with similar circumstances (not easy to do, and the awards/precedants are'nt always along the same lines).
"genuine value of the investment" can mean many things. based on other case awards i believe a good "reasonable" award expectation would be kry's investment + interest + currency exchange = $1bil....anything above this is gravy..
if anyone can find a case that awards lost profits to a company that had no history of profits, or an award that gave full value for an unexploited asset i would love to see it. in any case, $1bil is a hell of a lot better than we have now.... i think we're looking at two immediate possibilities.
1. kry goes BK and shareholders dont get d!(k...
2. kry figures out how to postpone or refi the notes and we see a nice immediate bump
one thing that folks dont seem to be looking at is GRZ's market cap. GRZ is currently worth $108mil....if kry's arb case is larger than GRZ's then the note debt + 36mil current cap means kry is probably fairly priced at these levels...at least for now.
