Okay, taking into account that the time the various activities take on our way to Nasdaq, cannot be predicted reliably, I made a rough calculation assuming an optimistic, a realistic, and a pessimistic duration for each activity. You might agree or disagree with these estimates, of course. Use your own estimates and recalculate!
The duration estimates for RO and VCSEL are the remaining days from now until 2015-03-31. (This is what I am calling the "realistic" scenario. You might argue that completion as announced would be optimistic, not realistic, and you would indeed have a point there. :-))
I am also assuming that these activities are in sequence, i.e. activity B can start only when A has completed. However, a partnership that is neither relying on the ring oscillator nor on the VCSEL might come out of the blue and render all estimates useless.
Anyway, according to my model (including all its shortcomings) I would expect a partnership announcement not before May and not after the end of October.
Sorry for the formatting!
|
Duration |
|
|
Completion date |
|
|
|
optimistic |
realistic |
pessimistic |
optimistic |
realistic |
pessimistic |
| Ring Oscillator, VCSEL |
25 |
32 |
60 |
2015-03-24 |
2015-03-31 |
2015-04-28 |
| Testing |
14 |
30 |
60 |
2015-04-07 |
2015-04-30 |
2015-06-27 |
| Serious conversations |
30 |
60 |
120 |
2015-05-07 |
2015-06-29 |
2015-10-25 |
| Partnership announcement |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2015-05-07 |
2015-06-29 |
2015-10-25 |
| Nasdaq application |
14 |
28 |
42 |
2015-05-21 |
2015-07-27 |
2015-12-06 |
| Minimum bid duration |
0 |
0 |
126 |
2015-05-21 |
2015-07-27 |
2016-04-10 |
