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Re: The pieces of the puzzle

My understanding is that POET management did not expect the share price to go into decline after the PO was announced and that the discount would be applied to the prevailing trading price of .80 or there about.






This was naive at best, incompetent at worst. What would any reasonable person presume on a PO preannouncement without terms?! Obviously uncertainty drives the market - who exactly didn't realize this?! Seriously.



The price had already gone into decline after the announcement of the PO and by the time they even addressed shareholders (the CC) the price had already dropped to .60 and that was really more about confusion regarding the need for the PO at such a low price.



BS, they could have pulled it. After which there were options, short of giving back 60% in mkt cap since the PO announcement. And let's not forget where this thing was trading going into the THM, where the pompous rockstar told us 'It’s going to go nothing but up from here'. Whether or not they were blinded by their own optimism, or inexcusably victim of unknown circumstances (the optimization hurdle, then export permits, now vendor bottlenecks) their lack of anticipation or any form of contingency planning is mismanagement of epic proportions.




It's not the question of a need for financing. It's not a question of desiring US coverage (at a reasonable price). It's their gross incompetence at running a public company. And where were the clowns on the BoD, IBK and Shelton to advise them along the way? The 5M Shorts obviously saw the writing on the wall - perhaps they should have representation on the Board.



I agree with the balance of your post.

almost 8 years ago
Bottom Line?!

I agree with Mack's and Morning Star's from last evening, as well as Rainer's post from earlier - possible outcomes/reasoning ... restated ...


BOTTOM LINE - Hold onto your shares. Selling may possibly only play into this mgmt/investment banker cabal to take this company private.

Again, the scenario plays out something like this ...



  • the cabal will continue to drive the price down - perhaps U$.20 or less


  • the cabal then brings a 'white knight' offer to the shareholders promising a 2-3X takeout, and company goes private.


  • at a 3X U$.60 offer, the cabal will steal the company at U$180M


  • mgmt's underwater options are equivalently converted to (likely an even higher) share of NewCo


  • shareholders are at least satisfied that they got out cutting their losses somewhat


  • NewCo has the necessary capital infusion to run comfortably another 18-24 months


  • within which time, without the anchor of running a public company, NewCo succeeds in finishing out the tech and begins to recognize serious revenue.

  • a new IPO is orchestrated at a subscription price of something far greater than $5/share. Who's the real winner here?!


Agora held somewhere between 50-60M shares per the 2016 poll. If I am correct and if governed by Ontario law, the cabal - at 90%, will require at least 270M of the newly diluted 300M shares outstanding. Translated, retail need to hold strong to force their hand, and obtain as high as possible a settlement.

Bailing now will only play into their hands if this scenario is correct. Holding will ensure - while not the utopian outcome for which we were all hoping - but the best possible eventual return under this circumstance.



In any case, if this is the play, a sad reality indeed.

almost 8 years ago
Re: AOC and Transceiver verticals

Very interesting frame-of-reference MP. Given that the transceiver module/patch-cord soluiton is/will be replaced by AOC, where do you see the Transceiver module being used as a standalone? What markets? TIA

about 8 years ago
NRE Overview

In consideration of pending NRE revenue, the following article provides a pretty comprehensive overview on the 'when, how and how much'. While it references software development (ISV), I would imagine that fundamental principles still apply.


http://pragmaticmarketing.com//resources/non-recurring-engineering?p=1

about 8 years ago
Re: Baystreet Article - one question

Communications will fall under the domain of the VP Marketing. Not an immediate priority, but would be surprised if it didn't evolve some time during the year.

over 8 years ago
Re: WTS

... and the 3 Million options for (the traditionally cash-strapped) Leon Pierhal, expiring September 30?!

almost 9 years ago
Derfickum
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