NOT's time will come, but not likely today. CASH remains king, and the majors have outstanding acquisition opportunities for most base and precious metals. They need resource prices higher and stronger before commiting to risky greenfield expansions. The Cr. is a unique exception simply because it is a rarity, a once in a lifetime opportunity for a major. CLF will steal the swing producer staus for years unless say an Xstrata say were to jump in. That could happen in a flash. But in the case of Nickel, nobody really cares, there is lots of supply and lots of undeveloped/undermined deposits. And if an acquirer has the $7.5 billion implied by your $41 value, why would they simply not purchase all of CLF, current market cap of about $5.5 billion. That would almost carry itself given the current earnings potential of CLF. As far as retail market investor money goes right now, it is considered safer by many to take the $1000 they might have in a NOT, lever it into $3300 of CLF (using 30% margin) and hope to see CLF at $200+ five years out. It is a different way of hitting the 'long ball' , has a different risk profile, but appeals to many in the current environment. Keep in mind the currency and political risks have increased dramatically for greenfields expansion, even in Canada, and it is only the pressure of Asian growth that will keep overall metals demand growing. The US and Euro governments will remain fixated as in the past on commodity prices for their sense of inflationary well-being regarding their currencies. The major mining outfits seem highly aware of that bias, so will take a show-me approach to overall demand and prefer to grow by acquisition except for committed projects and rare opportunities. NOT remains a wonderful opportunity whose time will come.
