Here's my shot:
BFS completed before Christmas and BFS NR in the second week of January.
All NRs up to Dec. 5th that refer to the BFS point to 2011 Q4 completion, and if the longs agree on one thing, it's that our money is in the hands of men and women of honour and integrity. I'm confident management knows by now if it is going to be late.
I don't expect a NR but phone calls in the near future to CF will likely confirm that the BFS is completed and being reviewed. If I recall correctly, this was the scenario with our latest RE.
Now if we look back at the last week of 2010 and the first week of 2011 we see a nice jump in our SP, starting on Dec. 29. I've carried a negative balance in my TFSA while trading so I attributed the 29th rise to EE and the rest of us getting a jump on our 2011 TFSA paper- I don't know if that's the case or allowed and I've never tried it; just an assumption I made at the time.
I too believe most of the discussion between CF and Teck are done regarding SC. I also think that Lindsay may have a small concern regarding the premium. Barring bad news out of the Europe, the US or China I think it's likely we'll see a SP rise with the 2012 TFSA run in the New Year. Now the stage is set and we have the springboard for the BFS NR. Unlike many of the past NRs where the market was unimpressed and manipulated, this one will take much of the speculation out of the equation for investors. And the premium will be more acceptable to TCK shareholders.
Either that, or the BFS will be released this afternoon.
JMO. Cheers.
