e.Digital

Eli Harari, founder, chairman and chief executive of SanDisk Corp., made the predications during a keynote. He also warned that the NAND industry is at the ''crossroads,'' as there is a ''disconnect'' between future capacity requirements and demand.

Here are Harari's predictions:

1. Recovery seen. NAND is moving towards a path towards recovery after a downturn. Current supply/demand picture is in better balance.

2. ASPs do not fall as fast as before. Annual price reductions for NAND will be around 40 percent from 2010 to 2013. This compares to annual price reductions for NAND at about 60 percent from 2005 to 2009.

3. Multi-bit rules. Market embraces 3-bit-per-cell (x3) and 4-bit-per-cell (x4) in the 2009 to 2015 timeframe. Currently, 2-bit-per-cell is mainstream.

4. Managed NAND. The key to NAND are the controllers, which manage the operations in various applications like solid-state drives (SSDs). There is a shift from raw NAND--or discrete components--to managed NAND.

5. Universal memory hype. Beyond NAND, there are no viable alternative universal memory technologies--yet. The so-called flash replacements--FRAM, MRAM, phase-change and others--are still not viable.

6. 3-D or bust? In the universal memory race, there could be one exception: 3-D read/write technology. SanDisk and Toshiba are working on a 3-D technology that could replace NAND, ''assuming there are material breakthroughs. That transition (to 3-D) is years ahead of us.''

7. 450-mm in limbo? NAND fabs will not make the transition from 300-mm to 450-mm fabs. The capital costs are too high.

8. EUV on the bubble.Right now, leading-edge NAND is made using 193-nm immersion lithography in the fab. Vendors could see a ''complex'' transition to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.