Truth be told I've seen the pool go horribly wrong with AAA. We were betting on the results of a 43-101 (grade, total tonnage, etc.) and there were literally hundreds of people involved. We had drill holes to go on, and frankly I was out of my depth and I basically picked a middling number for each of the bets.
Then there was a halt and everyone was anticipating the announcement. Both the amount and grade were much lower than anyone expected based on the drill results released every few weeks. I was at work watching the bids push higher when the halt was set to resume, but in the back of my mind I was thinking the numbers in the NR didn't look right. So I logged into my brokerage account and kept refreshing the realtime quotes and they rose briefly and then started falling by nickels every second. I quickly sold and got a small profit, but if I remember correctly the SP fell about 35% that day closing 0.05 less than what I paid. The SP never recovered.
For the record I'm ready to accept any valuation, but I was looking forward to using the knowledge we've gained over the years to make a good guess, rather than trying to pin the tail on the donkey like with AAA. I'll probably still make a guess, just for fun.
