Since we're dealing with speculation and inference in any case, I'd like to expound a moment on your point 1, about Cliffs stepping up.
Ever since Cliffs did the PP with FWR, the SP fell. It fell consistently until a few days prior to the announcement of Noront's takeover offer. Notwithstanding the fact that the offer seemed to take everyone by surprise, I think that the evidence shows that not everyone was surprised. The price and volume had already begun to rise, prior to the announcement.
Very quickly, the FWR SP put Cliffs warrants in the money, but they did nothing. I think that was a very signficant fact. Mac needed money, but Cliffs withheld it from him. If I recall the timeline correctly, they left him twisting in the wind for about six weeks, before they even did a counter-offer. And still no warrant exercise took place.
Only after Noront raised their bid did Cliffs do a PP, but at less than they knew they were about to offer. And then the warrants were exercised. And guess who gets that money if they do gain control?
Cliffs was hoping to slowly take over the chromite by gradual and cheap creep. Like fungus, rotting the sill, until the house begins to sag. And they wanted to do so on the cheap. Let's not forget, the SP fell from ~0.35 to less than 0.22 after the PP. I think that's exactly what Cliffs wanted.
But Noront understood the bigger picture. In real estate, the listing price is best set by looking at comparable properties. Here's a comparable, not in prime salable condition due to funding constraints, still needs some TLC (the 43-101), looking like it's about to go for a song. It was time to promote the Ring of Fire, and put the asset up for auction, rather than by foreclosure/default.
The way I see things, and because of how I've laid things out (I don't just have opinions, they are always reasoned, even if you disagree with those reasons), Noront did FWR a big favour. No way in hell Cliffs was going to pay a buck a share, if they had their way with it.
Lar
