(In that situation the possibility of Teck walking will increase and the share will start bleeding downward in my opinion )
Interesting because IMO since DEC 24th 2012 (6 months ago), considering Teck was working with CUU on feasibility since Jan 2010, each passing day increased the possibility of Teck NOT walking.
Some people seem to think management (who own 65% of the float) are a bunch of bumbling idots, well I assure you they're not.
(All Teck has to do is exercise the back-in right and agree to spend $ 340 MM. )
I suppose that if it was that easy, it would be done by now right ? Of course we've all put a deal like this together before right ? Well I haven't, and most likely never will.
I have witnessed some very ''small business'' transactions, $2 million deals , and the negotiations took months.
The 2002 agreement involves Schaft Creek, yeah that little piece of land on this map.
http://www.copperfoxmetals.com/s/Image.asp?i=maps/2013-CUU-tenures-obtained.jpg&id=581951
The current discussions can involve just Schaft Creek or maybe the land all around it (btw as Chappy posted, they added more last week!), then you must consider the port agreement, you have the Hydro agreement, you have Xstrata (now Glencore) who own 10.72% of the Liard shares, you have Royal gold, First nations, Goverment, you have various tax implications, accountants, lawyers and various options to pick from, schedules, and I'm probably forgetting some..
If something needs to be signed and they need a couple days, considering eveything I just mentionned above and the long term impacts this has on all, they'll probably use a couple days if needed. For that simple reason a fix deadline was not legally declared.
The time this is taking is only a good thing. Forget about Teck walking at this point.
(There seems to be a number of people who believe the CUU share value will be worth at least $ 4/ share with a Teck back-in of 75%( 70% net ownership). I haven't found any data to back that up .So that gives a value of about $ 1.7 billion for CUU's 24% and about $ 5 billion for Teck's 70%.)
Assets have been sold. I'll bring back Quellaveco, 900 million for 18%. Well that's 1.2 Billion for our 23.75%.
Then again Quellaveco is in Peru, water issues, no Feasibility or revised cost ($3 Billion in 2010), no 4x expenditures and financing to production.
Then you have Cobre Panama, again look and compare the NSR !!
Our upside...
The enviro permit process will start and we know we'll get them, so do the majors. Use 5%, get the road permits and your value doubles.
If Teck takes 75% we get the no 1 operator, financing to production and alot of money to spend. We also get to keep the Liard shares until Teck earn in by spending 360 million.
We get to upgrade economics and let Teck prove up the untested portion of the Paramount zone while other majors gather around.
Yes, the majors will know everything we know and will want to secure it, why wait for a competitor to take it, free ride with decades of just upsides.
Competition forces majors to act fast.
