Well, I'll be a sad son of a gun. I leave the computer for the whole day, first time in a month or more, and look what happens.
So many of us, myself more than others, have been forcasting something like this for a good long time, but it still quite a thrill to see it actually happen.
But what is happening??
What are the possibilities? I have heard PP, buyin, hit on the chrome holes, and word of infrastructure. I am honstly doubtful on all of them.
Private placement? I can see a placement happening because of the runup, but can't imagine how the rumor of one would serve as the catalyst.
One would expect that a buyin would not be leaked by either side. It would be based on recent closing prices, and why would a buyin at .50, or even .60 cause such a runup.
Similarly, if there was something concrete happening with infrastructure, one would expect it would be a tidal event, and would tend to give a boost to others in the ROF, as much as to NOT.
In the case of the chrome infill drilling, if there was something earth shattering to be had there, one would expect it would have come from visuals as they finished the holes a couple of months ago.
The real intriguing thing that throws all my reasoning to the wind, though, is the rumor coming out of the area that many of the locals are getting excited about a huge effort this winter to build ice roads, etc. This effort doesn't get much attention until the new year normally, and is just another yearly event. However if there is to be an effort to get things going early, and on a greater scale, could only be because there is a greater need this year. Couple this with the reports that the chiefs are rattling their sabre ever more loudly, and we become even more confused.
Judging by this forum, and a couple of others that I attend, there has been a huge influx of former holders that have been sitting on the sidelines for many months, watching but not buying. Could it be that (perish the thought) someone has a program designed to pick up on volume only, and once that first cross of 1250k shares went through, it automatically started buying? Once the up trend started, all the watchers paniced and started buying along with it, and we wound up where we are?
My conclusion is that it is either the above, or we are going to get a buyout at the start of the week. To support the buyout theory, I have, over the last little bit, picked up on a figure of $600m having been earmarked for a run at Noront. That figure would be considered the final figure, so I would guess a first offer of $1.80 would be reasonable.
I know everyone will immediately start screaming if this offer actually has any truth to it, but let's consider a few facts;
Almost all the original holders have vacated the premises long ago. Others will have traded up nd down and will have reduced their net cost considerably since 2007. In my own case, I hold more than three times as many shares as I held during the run up to $7.43, and during that time have adjusted my net cost down to well below a dollar a share.
The present buyers over the last month or so have bought close to 20 mill shares at .50 or less.
The market is just beginning to come back to life, and it would make a lot of sense to try a takeout now, rather than in the spring.
A lot of this rambling will become either fact or fiction as the market opens on Monday morning, and we see one of three things; A halt pending news, which will be interesting, a further runup as the rumors grow stronger, or a gradual fallback as we have seen so many times before.
As mentioned, this is mostly rambling by an over zealous senior. It is not meant to be contrary, or to pee anyone off, but is designed more towards further debate, of which I would imagine there will be plenty over the weekend
Best regards
K
