If CLF thought for a moment that they would get NOT for a reasonable price, they would already have it.
When they made their move on FWR, it was a counteraction to NOT's attempt to consolidate the area. Because of Mac Watson's animosity towards NOT, it was a relatively easy step to get him into their back pocket, and subsequently win the day. The same result happened with SPQ. Once they has control of either of these leaders, it was pretty much game over for the lowly retail investor.
The case with NOT is different in that there is no love lost between CLF and NOT BOD. For any takeover to succeed, either friendly or hostile, the secret to success is to somehow satisfy the needs of the existing control figures.
As it stands any move on NOT without a huge premium would likely fail. There is still too much upside possible in the minds of present shareholders, and any attempt to buy the BOD with a huge signing bonus or something similar would be too obvious.
Better to wait it out on the chance that this winter's program will produce nothing. At that point they could offer a sub 2.00 price and likely get it. Of course the opposite is also true, in that a good regional hit could change everything.
At any rate I am fairly comfortable with this investment, as I see a worst case buyout in the 1.80 range, or a good hit taking us to the 4.00 range, with either one happening sooner rather than later
Best regards
K
