I have posted a spreadsheet that you can download by from the following link:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3faQpLOiHylU3NyUFNTS0ZtR00/edit?usp=sharing
Clicking on the down arrow icon near the top left of the screen will allow you to download the spreadsheet to you computer.
This spreadsheet makes some estimates on the number of patients that may use Afrezza in the US and the amount of revenue that it generates. Note that it only includes US projections and that the valuation will be higher when you add in Europe and the rest of the world.
I made the assumption that Afrezza is protected by patents and that a superior drug does not displace it until 2023.
I also assume that the number of diagnosed diabetes patients in the US grows at a 5% per annum rate. I read somewhere that it was growing at an 11% rate, but data from the Center for Disease Control does not back this up. See columns L through O in the spreadsheet.
Because of the risks, I am using a 20% discount rate.
The 30 % profit margin is a guess. I also remember reading an research report that used the same number.
The 50% dividend payout rate assumption lets us estimate dividends. Since I am using 50%, you would expect a signicant residual value, but that value is very hard to predict. You could alternatively assume a 100% payout rate and no residual value.
Some of the estimates for number of patients are based on Liahall's previous posting. I had a hard time really getting comfortable with the correct numbers because I found conflicting data. Any help in this area would be appreciated.
Type 1 patient assumptions:
Sales: $2,000 per patient per annum
Percentage patients using Afrezza: 25%
Type 2 insulin patients:
Sales: $2,000 per patient per annum
Percentage patients using Afrezza: 25%
Type 2 oral medication patients:
Sales: $1,000 per patient per annum. I made the assumption that these patients may use less of the drug than the type 1 and the type 2 that already use insulin
Percentage patients using Afrezza: 25%. This could go much higher since there are no competing insulin therapies.
Type 2 patients that use no medication:
I assume that these patients will continue not using medication
Pre-diabetes patients:
Sales: $1,000 per patient per annum. I made the assumption that these patients may use less of the drug than the type 1 and the type 2 that already use insulin
Percentage patients using Afrezza: 5% Since they are pre-diabetic many patients may resist using any medication, but I might be very wrong.
