Russell,
I like your thinking for the coming year's run-up. I like to get a little more specific on the potential market size.
So now for some numbers. I’m basing it on past run-up history and new assumptions based on fundamental changes in the 3 year interval between CRL #2 and approval in 2014. Those changes being number of shares outstanding and approval for T2 diabetics.
CRL #2 100 M shares s/p $10 MC 1 B indication – T1 only
T1s are only 10% of the total diabetic population. 27% of T2s use insulin, and my professional guesstimate is that a similar number could easily benefit from starting insulin sooner.
So if X = # T1s, 9X = # T2s, and 9X * .27 * 2 = # T2s using or could benefit from insulin – roughly 5X.
So our market size goes from X to 6X !!! Based on the past run-up history, that gives us a MC of 6 B. So going into NDA:
2014 280 M shares (current) MC 6 B indication – T1 & T2 s/p=$21
2014 550 M shares (possible) MC 6 B indication – T1 & T2 s/p=$11
This is what I think is possible, however, I'd be happy with $10 - $12 for the run-up. After that, once they're up and running, the numbers get even more interesting...
