Deez:
My senarios are based upon a timeline 10 years from the date that we go into comercialization of the product and all have some very loosie-goosie assumptions as to market share penetration and are based upon 550M shares out (but could be ammended to 412M) and a P/E of the sector being set at 16X earnings.
Another member here suggested that it does not have any risk built into the numbers which is correct. Guess that I could go back and build a decision tree back into it to cover a spectrum of possible market penetrations and possible partnership permutations and come up with a number that I think would still be somewhat of a guess.
As to what the price will be the day before the FDA decsion I would be tempted to go back to what it was and what the share count was before the last FDA decison as previously suggested by another member or two.
Think the numbers bantied about here have been in the range of $10p/s and 100M shares or a market cap of 1B with an idea of approval being confirmed by our FDA insider. So my thinking has us now at at 412M at $2.60p/s (not all shares are out there yet) or a market cap of 1.07B. We look like we have (or at least will have) the funds to complete the process, and the process looks to be steering towards Approval. All in all it sounds like we are in pretty much the same boat as we were last time around so I would be willing to think $3-4 range before.
As to what the price will be after, I like to use the analogy of the shorts doing a "Clown car dismount", which I believe will have the capacity to push this to the $6-10 as this thing shakes out.
After year 1 my models show a min price tag of $3 per share based upon the previously stated assumptions (market, p/e, share count) but I think this to be rather low and am personally excepcting this to remain in the double digits going forward in FY2 and beyond.
At year 5 if my numbers ring true for NA,NA+EU, or World senarios we could see these in the range of $35, $70 or $150 per share.
I may take 25% off the table if we see a run to $6 prior to decision and will look at another 25% possibly if we hit the double digits but when I look at the possible FY5 numbers I might just stay the course.
Hope to see all the longs at the post decison gathering. Never been to Vegas, can someone suggest a hotel?
OOG
