Here is my assessment of the expected number of shares based on what we already know and taking into account the entire capital structure of the company as of November 2012
We are currently up to 285,767,463 shares outstanding. 199,767,463 previously issued plus 86,000,000 issued on 10/23/2012. The issuance on 10/23/2012 was over subscribed at 46 million to the public, not 40 million.
I would also add the 3,002,778 shares issuable in connection with the 7/23/12 securities action settlement, but not the additional 1,000,000 shares if the share price is below $1 at settlement.
I think it would be safe to add the shares from the exercise of all of the warrants; an additional 86,062,500 shares. If the company is successful, all warrants will get exercised. If the share price is not high enough for the October 30, 2013 warrants to get exercised at $2.60, then the company will have to go to the capital markets for financing and the terms will surely be worse than the exercise would provide.
There were 3,782,122 unsettled restricted shares which will likely settle if the company is successful.
There are also 18,662,846 company options with an average strike of $3.47. Since I don't know the breakdown of all the strikes, it is hard to know how many will get exercised, but for safety, I would assume that they all get exercised
The 8/15/2015 convertible debt has a conversion price of $6.80, so if the company is successful, then by 2015 the share price should be above $6.8, so I assume conversion will happen.
I would not count the 12/15/2013 convertibles since the conversion price is so high, nor would I count the restricted shares that are available but not yet granted.
From |
Shares |
Running Total |
Outstanding |
285,767,463 |
285,767,463 |
Other: from securities action |
3,002,778 |
288,770,241 |
Warrants |
86,062,500 |
374,832,741 |
Restricted Stock |
3,782,122 |
378,614,863 |
Company Options |
18,662,846 |
397,277,709 |
8/15/2015 Convertible Debt |
14,708,590 |
411,986,299 |
So, by my count, we are up to about 412 million shares.
Here are the details:
Convertible Debt |
|
|
|
|
Maturity Date |
Principal |
Coupon |
Conversion Price |
Total Shares if Converted |
|
12/15/2013 |
115,000,000 |
3.75% |
22.47 |
5,117,523 |
Up to 1,484,064 additional shares issuable make-whole premium |
8/15/2015 |
100,000,000 |
5.75% |
6.80 |
14,708,590 |
Up to 2,041820 additional shares issuable make-whole premium |
Total |
215,000,000 |
|
|
19,826,113 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mann Group LOC |
|
|
|
|
Maturity Date |
Principal Owed |
Unused Principal |
Total Credit Line |
As of Date |
|
7/1/2013 |
????? |
120,000,000 |
????? |
9/30/2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Warrants |
|
|
|
|
|
Expiration Date |
Quantity |
Strike Price |
Shares Per Warrant |
Total Shares if Exercised |
Total Proceeds if Exercised |
2/8/2016 |
35,937,500 |
2.40 |
0.60 |
21,562,500 |
51,750,000 |
10/30/2013 |
46,000,000 |
2.60 |
0.75 |
34,500,000 |
89,700,000 |
10/30/2013 |
40,000,000 |
2.60 |
0.75 |
30,000,000 |
78,000,000 |
Total |
121,937,500 |
|
|
86,062,500 |
219,450,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shares Outstanding |
|
|
|
|
Date |
Shares |
Issue Price |
Proceeds |
|
|
As of 9/30/2012 |
199,767,463 |
|
|
|
|
10/23/2012 |
46,000,000 |
2.00 |
92,000,000 |
|
|
10/23/2012 |
40,000,000 |
2.69 |
107,400,000 |
|
|
Total |
285,767,463 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stock Options |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weighted Average Strike Price |
Total Shares if Exercised |
Total Proceeds if Exercised |
|
|
As of Oct 2012 |
3.47 |
18,662,846 |
64,760,076 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Restricted Stock Units |
|
|
|
|
|
Total Shares upon settlement |
|
|
|
|
As of Oct 2012 |
3,782,122 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other Stock |
|
|
|
|
|
Date |
Shares |
|
|
|
|
As of Oct 2012 |
9,338,040 |
shares available for future grant under 2004 equity incentive paln and option plan |
As of Oct 2012 |
3,002,778 |
shares issuable in connection with 7/23/12 securities action settlement |
As of Oct 2012 |
1,000,000 |
shares issuable in connection with 7/23/12 securities action settlement if share pr <1.00 at settlement |
|
Total |
13,340,818 |
|
|
|
|
.