I own warrants and my understanding is nothing changes for the warrants except they are treated exactly like the shares in the merger. This means the warrant strike price will be around $19 dollars and the stock price for ECU shares around $20 dollars as per the merger arrangement based on prices yesterday. This is the exact same scenario that existed prior to the merger announcement, shares at about $1 dollar, warrants at about .50 cents and exercise price of the warrants at .95 cents.
This means the warrants would probably be valued in the market right now at around $10 which is about what you paid for them. The leverage is not gone as very dollar over the approximate strike price of $19 is a positive value for the warrants plus the time value.
With AUM post merger and in the future at let's say $50 dollars, the warrants would be worth $31 dollars plus any time value. In your case they would be valued at 3350 x $31 = $103,850 dollars and you paid $33,500 for them, a nice profit. I think this is a realistic scenario over the next 12-18 months if metal stocks start to get valued more properly and with the upside the merged companies could have.
I expect these warrants will be valuable going forward and they may have more potential than before since AUM has no existing warrants on the market and now there is leverage to exploration projects from 2 companies plus there will be significant advancement in ECU production that would have taken longer if they remained as things were.
The warrant action in the warrant yesterday was not representaive and on very light volume, it looked like one seller from TD drove the price down from ignorance. I expect the value of my warrants to get back to normal when people better understand the merger and the neutral aspects of the transaction.
