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Gold and Silver Market Morning: Jan 26 2017 - Gold and Silver weakening on options and Shanghai closing!
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-- Published: Thursday, 26 January 2017 | Print | Comment - New!
Gold Today –New York closed at $1,200.10 on the 25th January after closing at$1,209.90 on the 24th January. London opened at $1,197.85 today.
Overall the dollar was weaker against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:
- The $: € was weaker at $1.0732: €1 from $1.0724: €1 yesterday.
- The Dollar index was weaker at 100.11 from 100.31 yesterday.
- The Yen was weaker at 113.78:$1 from yesterday’s 113.69 against the dollar.
- The Yuan was stronger at 6.8755: $1, from 6.8766: $1, yesterday.
- The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2635: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2509: £1.
Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date
Contract
Benchmark Price AM 1 gm
Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
2017 1 26
2017 1 25
2017 1 24
SHAU
SHAU
SHAU
/
269.04
270.41
/
267.84
269.70
$ equivalent 1oz @ $1: 6.8755
$1: 6.8766
$1: 6.8541
/
$1,216.89
$1,227.10
/
$1,211.46
$1,223.88
Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle Eat eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]
Shanghai was trading today around 266.80 Yuan or in dollars, at today’s exchange rate, $1,206.95. The dollar was weaker across the board, but only slightly against the Yuan.
We correct ourselves and inform you that today is the last trading day before the ‘Year of the Rooster’ celebrations, which begin tomorrow and end next Thursday. Business will continue next Friday, there.
This marks the exit of Chinese demand from the global gold market for the next week.
London opened on Thursday $4.00 lower than Shanghai was trading at today. Shanghai continues to drive prices but to the downside now.
LBMA price setting: The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,191.55 down from yesterday’s $1,203.50.
The gold price in the euro was set lower at €1,111.21 after yesterday’s €1,118.08as the dollar weakened.
Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,193.25 and in the euro at €1,112.59. At the same time, the silver price was trading at $16.89.
Silver Today –Silver closed at $16.99 at New York’s close yesterday against $16.99 on the 24th January.
Gold (very short-term) The gold price will have a weaker bias, in New York today.
Silver (very short-term) The silver price will have a weaker bias, in New York today.
Price Drivers
Yesterday in New York there was a very heavy sale of gold from the SPDR gold ETF of over 5 tonnes. The market in New York fell during New York’s day below $1,200 to $1,196 but recovered overnight to $1,200.
In Shanghai the gold price today fell back to the equivalent of $1,206, when allowing for the difference of quality of gold being priced. It coincided with the closing date for Options today and may have been sold to lower the ‘striking price’ of those options, which would be around $12 lower, favouring the ‘put’ option holders.
The sale has also coincided with the last day of business in Shanghai before the Chinese New Year holiday.
As we have said in our weekly newsletter before, “It will take substantial dailysales of gold from the SPDR gold ETF to hold the dollar gold price down.” We do not think this will happen in the days to come.
Nevertheless the forecast we made yesterday of “expectations are moving to see lower gold prices in the very short term” has come true. To see our next forecasts, subscribe through www.GoldForecaster.com
We then expect Chinese demand to come to life after the holidays, particularly if the gold price is lower.
This is positive for gold.
Gold ETFs – Yesterday, in New York, there were sales of 5.038 tonnes of gold from the SPDR gold ETF but there were no purchases or sales into or from the Gold Trust, leaving their respective holdings at 799.070 tonnes and 198.75 tonnes. This sale was sufficient to cause the fall in the gold price.
Since January 4th 2016, 196.94tonnes of gold has been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.
Regards,
Julian D.W. Phillips
Gold and Silver Market Morning: Jan 25 2017 - Gold and Silver consolidating!
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-- Published: Wednesday, 25 January 2017 | Print | 1 Comment
Gold Today –New York closed at $1,209.90 on the 24th January after closing at $1,215.30 on the 23rd January. London opened at $1,203.25 today.
Overall the dollar was stronger against global currencies early today. Before London’s opening:
- The $: € was stronger at $1.0724: €1 from $1.0752: €1 yesterday.
- The Dollar index was stronger at 100.31 from 100.20 yesterday.
- The Yen was weaker at 113.69:$1 from yesterday’s 113.24 against the dollar.
- The Yuan was weaker at 6.8766: $1, from 6.8534: $1, yesterday.
- The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2509: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2482: £1.
Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date
Contract
Benchmark Price AM 1 gm
Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
2017 1 25
2017 1 24
2017 1 23
SHAU
SHAU
SHAU
/
270.41
270.79
/
269.70
270.74
$ equivalent 1oz @ $1: 6.8766
$1: 6.8541
$1: 6.8546
/
$1,227.10
$1,228.73
/
$1,223.88
$1,228.51
Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle Eat eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]
Shanghai was trading today around 268.75 Yuan or in dollars, at today’s exchange rate, $1,215.58. The dollar was stronger across the board, as well as against the Yuan. With only two more trading days before the celebration of the ‘Year of the Rooster’ begins we may well see last minute buying or a tapering off of demand. It is impossible to forecast which.
New York, Tuesday, closed well below Shanghai’s close seen earlier in the day, before New York opened. In New York there was another over 2 tonne of gold sale from the SPDR gold ETF.
London opened on Wednesday $7.50 lower than Shanghai was trading at today. Shanghai continues to drive prices but to the downside.
LBMA price setting: The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,203.50 down slightly from yesterday’s $1,213.75.
The gold price in the euro was set lower at €1,118.08 after yesterday’s €1,129.39as the dollar weakened.
Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,206.30 and in the euro at €1,121.31. At the same time, the silver price was trading at $16.98.
Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.18 at New York’s close yesterday from $17.07 on the 20th January.
Gold (very short-term) The gold price will consolidate, in New York today.
Silver (very short-term) The silver price will consolidate, in New York today.
Price Drivers
There was another significant, but not heavy sale of gold from the SPDR gold ETF yesterday [see below]. The gold market mood is one of consolidation, particularly ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday as well as the Options closure day tomorrow. With gold consolidating around $1,213 it may be that expectations are moving to see lower gold prices in the very short term.
We then expect Chinese demand to come to life after the holidays, particularly if the gold price is lower.
President Trump today is unveiling plans to build a wall between Mexico and the U.S., the Great Wall of America. What he is doing is to tell markets he is taking a very firm grip of the U.S. in moves that would have been far too bold for previous Presidents going back to Johnson. In the process he is not reliant on ‘the establishment’, but ensuring they bow to his will.
[As an aside; one feature supporting his dominance is the way he shakes hands. He either pulls the other person to him or keeps holding their hand for far too long. It is a sign of that dominance.] If he continues with this attitude [it is in his nature] we are certain that he will confront China.
Consequently, we see China becoming more assertive already, making clear they will defend ‘the Islands’ [now constructed for military use] from the U.S. Already there is a squaring up against the U.S. setting the scene for the next few years.
This is positive for gold. [see our www.GoldForecaster.com issues].
During London’s day the dollar weakened and on the Dollar Index fell back below 100. It looks certain to fall quite a bit further from now on.President Trump is getting his wish!
Gold ETFs – Friday, in New York, there were sales of 2.963 tonnes of gold into the SPDR gold ETF but there were no purchases or sales into or from the Gold Trust, leaving their respective holdings at 804.108 tonnes and 198.75 tonnes.
Since January 4th 2016, 201.978 tonnes of gold has been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.
Regards,
Julian D.W. Phillips
Trump Is Gold Rally Accelerant
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-- Published: Tuesday, 24 January 2017 | Print | 1 Comment
By Stewart Thomson
1. The 2017 gold market rally continues nicely, with a current pause at light overhead resistance in the $1215 - $1220 area.
2. Please click here now: http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/17jan/2017jan24gold1.png Double-click to enlarge this daily bars gold chart.
3. Note the flat lining action of the 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator at the bottom of the chart. That’s quite positive, and opens the door to a further move towards my $1245 target price area.
4. Please click here now: http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/17jan/2017jan24trump1.png Donald Trump is likely to be a positive catalyst for higher gold prices, for many reasons.
5. On the geopolitical front, the South Sea island building by China looks like it could quickly become a major gold price driver.
6. Trump has also been very clear about his goal of slowing US corporate outsourcing of labour to foreign countries.
7. This is quite inflationary and could end up creating a bit of an earnings quagmire.
8. Please click here now: http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/17jan/2017jan24usd1.png Double-click to enlarge this daily bars US dollar versus Japanese yen chart.
9. It’s true that US bond market yields have risen a bit, but Trump’s dollar-negative statements are overwhelming the rise and putting downwards pressure on the dollar against both the yen and gold.
10. Gold has stopped rising at $1215 - $1220 at the same time as the dollar has stopped falling at 112.50 against the yen.
11. All Western gold community eyes should be focused on that 112.50 dollar versus yen price. If the dollar falls below that support, it should send gold through $1220, and on towards $1245.
12. Many gold analysts have been trying to call an end to the current rally, and have been negative since the December lows. In contrast, I would argue that the rally is poised to accelerate.
13. I don’t think these analysts really grasp the tremendous influence that Trump and his team can have on the value of the dollar against key currencies like the yuan and the yen.
14. Please click here now: http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/17jan/2017jan24usd2.png Double-click to enlarge this daily bars chart of the dollar versus the Swiss franc.
15. The dollar is beginning to look like a train wreck on this chart. It’s broken down from a head and shoulder top pattern just as Trump has been inaugurated!
16. When push comes to shove, the US Treasury has vastly more power than the central bank wields, and the Treasury has legal authority to devalue the dollar. The Fed has no such authority.
17. Janet Yellen’s recent negative statements about Trump’s stimulus policies will fall on deaf ears, and may create a backlash.
18. Janet would not fare very well in a confrontation with Trump. I expect future statements from her about US government policy to become quite timid as she begins to realize how determined Mr. Trump is to lower the value of the dollar.
19. Please click here now: http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/17jan/2017jan24gdx1.png GDX is breaking out of a small ascending triangle, and making a beeline towards my $25 target zone.
20. Technically, GDX looks superb now. The green downtrend line is now support, as is the horizontal resistance at $22.50!
21. The bottom line is that the traffic light is turning green for most gold stocks, while President Trump turns it red for the dollar.
22. Please click here now: http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/17jan/2017jan24kgc1.png Double-click to enlarge this Kinross daily bars chart.
23. It’s blasting upwards from an inverse head and shoulders pattern at a key support zone. Investors can book some light profits near the $4.22 price zone, and use my unique pyramid generator to do so systematically.
24. Donald “The Golden Trumpster” Trump may or may not make debt-soaked America great (he likely won’t), but he’s almost certainly going to make gold ownership a great investment during his presidency. I will dare to suggest it’s time for the Western gold community to throw a bit of caution to the wind, and sit back and enjoy this gold price rally. This is a rally that seems poised to accelerate in quite a shocking way, as the Golden Trumpster makes one dollar-negative move after another!
Thanks!
Cheers
St
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
Gold and Silver Market Morning: Jan 24 2017 - Gold and Silver consolidating!
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-- Published: Tuesday, 24 January 2017 | Print | 1 Comment
Gold Today –New York closed at $1,215.30 on the 23rd January after closing at$1,201.50 on the 20th January. London opened at $1,213.35 today.
Overall the dollar is weaker against global currencies today. Before London’s opening:
- The $: € was weaker at $1.0752: €1 from $1.0730: €1 yesterday.
- The Dollar index was weaker at 100.20 from 100.42 yesterday.
- The Yen was stronger at 113.24:$1 from yesterday’s 113.61 against the dollar.
- The Yuan was stronger at 6.8534: $1, from 6.8541: $1, yesterday.
- The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2482: £1 from yesterday’s $1.2452: £1.
Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date
Contract
Benchmark Price AM 1 gm
Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
2017 1 24
2017 1 23
2017 1 20
SHAU
SHAU
SHAU
/
270.79
269.04
/
270.74
268.92
$ equivalent 1oz @ $1: 6.8541
$1: 6.8546
$1: 6.8765
/
$1,228.73
$1,216.91
/
$1,228.51
$1,216.37
Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle Eat eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]
Shanghai was trading today just above 270 Yuan or in dollars, at today’s exchange rate, $1,226,15 having touched nearly 272 during the day. The dollar is only slightly weaker across the board, as well as against the Yuan.
New York, Monday, closed in line with gold prices in Shanghai earlier in the day, before New York opened. This is a first, as New York climbed up to Shanghai’s levels despite an over 2 tonne sell-off from the SPDR gold ETF.
London opened on Tuesday $8.00 lower than Shanghai was trading at today. Shanghai is, once again driving prices despite the stronger Yuan against the dollar. It demonstrates that gold is rising against all currencies today and in all gold markets.
Chinese New Year
This weekend sees the start of the Chinese New Year, so the current demand is particularly for that holiday, which will last a week. During that time the Shanghai Gold Exchange is likely to be quiet. Will this see a fall off in prices? It is likely that we will.
With India struggling to find the cash to buy gold still, India will not shore up the gap made next week. So it is likely we will see falling prices until the Chinese return.
LBMA price setting: The LBMA gold price was set today at $1,213.30 down slightly from yesterday’s $1,213.75.
The gold price in the euro was set lower at €1,129.39 after yesterday’s €1,134.35as the dollar stabilized.
Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,213.65 and in the euro at €1,129.61. At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.14.
Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.18 at New York’s close yesterday from $17.07 on the 20th January.
Gold (very short-term) The gold price will consolidate with a stronger bias, in New York today.
Silver (very short-term) The silver price will consolidate with a stronger bias, in New York today.
Price Drivers
Despite over 2 tonnes of sales of gold from the SPDR gold ETF yesterday, the gold price in New York rose. Of course, that sale would only be reported at the end of the day and if it was sold into the market, it would be sold into London, which did not move higher this morning in London. Nevertheless, the amount is not so large that it is a price mover, but after stuttering small purchases into the U.S. based gold ETF’s in the last fortnight this was the first sale seen since early January. It followed a purchase the business day before of 1.85 tonnes, so its impact would have to be muted.
President Trump is sticking to his election promises on the foreign policy front by cancelling the TPP trade deal. As we said yesterday, ‘He looks as though he will ensure a protectionist, introverted set of policies that will move away from the avuncular, globally dominant policies,” that we have been used to from the Second World War. This is not too dissimilar to the policies China has followed for the last two decades and we see the spectacular results in China. The emerging world will suffer, particularly those that relied on U.S. trade for their economic health. They will look for other avenues of capital and trade inflows.
We can see that happening right now as President Trump’s withdrawal of the U.S. from the TPP agreement presents an opportunity to China to move into its place, in that Agreement. With China having created such a power, so far, it is able to bring the other members under its influence. But China will only walk that road if China benefits independently of the U.S. - Sounds Trumpish, doesn’t it? [see ourwww.GoldForecaster.com issues].
Gold ETFs – Friday, in New York, there were sales of 2.074 tonnes of gold into the SPDR gold ETF but there were no purchases or sales into or from the Gold Trust, leaving their respective holdings at 807.071 tonnes and 198.75 tonnes.
Since January 4th 2016, 204.941 tonnes of gold has been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.
Regards,
Julian D.W. Phillips
Gold and Silver Market Morning: Jan 23 2017 - Gold and Silver rising against the dollar!
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-- Published: Monday, 23 January 2017 | Print | Comment - New!
Gold Today –New York closed at $1,207.60 on the 20th January after closing at $1,201.50 on the 19th January. London opened at $1,212.00 today.
Overall the dollar is weaker against global currencies today. Before London’s opening:
- The $: € was weaker at $1.0730: €1 from $1.0679: €1 Friday.
- The Dollar index was weaker at 100.42 from 100.97 Friday.
- The Yen was stronger at 113.61: $1 from Friday’s 114.73 against the dollar.
- The Yuan was stronger at 6.8546: $1, from 6.8765: $1, Friday.
- The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2452: £1 from Friday’s $1.2355: £1.
Yuan Gold Fix
Trade Date
Contract
Benchmark Price AM 1 gm
Benchmark Price PM 1 gm
2017 1 23
2017 1 20
2017 1 19
SHAU
SHAU
SHAU
/
269.04
268.36
/
268.92
268.26
$ equivalent 1oz @ $1: 6.8546
$1: 6.8765
$1: 6.8767
/
$1,216.91
$1,213.80
/
$1,216.37
$1,213.35
Please note that the Shanghai Fixes are for 1 gm of gold. From the Middle Eat eastward metric measurements are used against 0.9999 quality gold. [Please note that the 0.5% difference in price can be accounted for by the higher quality of Shanghai’s gold on which their gold price is based over London’s ‘good delivery’ standard of 0.995.]
Shanghai was trading today at around 271 Yuan having touched slightly higher during the day. On today’s exchange rate this equates to $1,229 with the dollar weaker across the board as well as against the Yuan.
New York, on Friday closed at only a $4.60 discount to prices in Shanghai on Friday and London opened on Monday $12.00 higher than Shanghai. Shanghai is, once again driving prices despite the stronger Yuan against the dollar. It demonstrates that gold is rising against all currencies today and in all gold markets.
LBMA price setting: The LBMA gold price setting was not available at the time of sending this to you, against Friday’s $1,199.10.
The gold price in the euro was set lower at €1,127.93 after Friday’s €1,127.93 as the dollar continued to weaken.
Ahead of the opening of New York the gold price was trading at $1,213.35 and in the euro at €1,129.75. At the same time, the silver price was trading at $17.17.
Silver Today –Silver closed at $17.07 at New York’s close Friday from $17.00on the 19th January.
Gold (very short-term) The gold price will be stronger, in New York today.
Silver (very short-term) The silver price will be stronger, in New York today.
Price Drivers
On the day of President Trump’s inauguration we saw a purchase of size [but not very large] of 1.185 tonnes into the SPDR gold ETF. This is the second purchase in the last fortnight, of size, into the fund. It does indicate that the selling has stopped and the buying has begun again.
President Trump looks as though he will keep his campaign promises regarding foreign policies. He looks as though he will ensure a protectionist introverted set of policies that will move away from the avuncular, [get it right by following us], global policy “We act only in our national interests to ‘make America great’ again!” policies.
We see the initial consequences as him holding to his promise of not buying O.P.E.C. oil [see our www.GoldForecaster.com issues to get this prospect filled out], to getting out of Trade packs that did not suit the U.S. and going headlong at China in a Trade war of sorts.
He wants the dollar lower, the E.U. wants the euro lower, the U.K. wants a weaker pound and Japan wants a lower Yen. Against who, we ask?!!!
President Trump’s opinion on the dollar, we believe, is in line with both the Fed’s and the Treasury’s, making today’s fall in the dollar no surprise. His opinion has probably removed internal barriers to seeing the dollar go lower anyway.
All of this is long, medium and likely short term, positive for gold! For instance with China asserting Capital Controls on the outflow of wealth that does not benefit China and who are still encouraging investments in gold by their citizens, the Shanghai Gold Exchange is driving gold prices globally still. The global fundamentals remain positive for gold.
Gold ETFs – Friday, in New York, there were purchases of 1.185 tonnes of gold into the SPDR gold ETF but there were no purchases or sales into or from the Gold Trust, leaving their respective holdings at 809.145 tonnes and 198.75 tonnes.
Since January 4th 2016, 207.015 tonnes of gold has been added to the SPDR gold ETF and to the Gold Trust.
Regards,
Julian D.W. Phillips
Route1 launches mobile user ID validation solution
2016-12-06 11:47 ET - News Release
Mr. Tony Busseri reports
ROUTE1 LAUNCHES DERIVID -- A NEW STANDARD IN SECURE MOBILE USER IDENTITY VALIDATION
Route1 Inc. has launched DerivID, an industry-first derived credential solution for personal identity verification (PIV) and common access card (CAC) users that validates the identity of mobile users seamlessly, simply and securely. DerivID exceeds U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) security standards, and eliminates the need for an external card reader.
Developed in direct response to feedback from Route1's U.S. military and civilian government accounts, DerivID is a best-in-class solution for validating the identity of mobile government employees who need to securely access networks and applications, digitally sign documents, and more. Part of the Route1 suite of patented security solutions, DerivID leverages deployed and fully accredited infrastructures (DEFIMNETs) that are available to both the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and civilian government, ensuring that the technology can be seamlessly deployed and scaled. The solution exceeds the highest federal security requirements and incorporates two-factor authentication, all at a lower cost than competitive offerings. It supports multiple user credentials per mobile device and supports unique credentials for a user's multiple devices.
Brian Brunetti, president of Route1, commented on today's news: "DerivID furthers Route1's objective of providing best-in-class technology solutions that enable productive and flexible work forces without compromising the integrity of sensitive data or organizational networks, and represents the gold standard in mobile user identity validation. As with our other technology offerings, DerivID exceeds federal security standards and is simple to deploy and scale."
Unlike other derived credentials solutions, DerivID eliminates vulnerabilities associated with brute force attacks, including dictionary attacks. It also enables the detection and prevention of multiple sign-in attempts. DerivID is designed to integrate and actively function with multiple certificate authorities on the Federal Bridge, and integrates seamlessly with leading MDM (mobile device management) and EMM (enterprise mobility management) providers. The solution is ideal for government and military decision makers including CISOs, IAOs and enterprise mobility executives. Additional key benefits of the DerivID solution include the following.
Secure processes and technology:
- Architected based on NIST SP 800-157;
- High-security smart card technology that eliminates the possibility of brute force attacks, including dictionary attacks;
- Configurable user reauthentication triggers and credential validity periods;
- Enables the detection and prevention of multiple sign-in attempts;
- Level of Assurance 3 (LOA3).
Flexible solution:
- Automated credential life cycle management;
- Designed to integrate with existing certificate authorities on the Federal Bridge;
- Actively functions with multiple certificate authorities;
- More cost-effective than other derived credentials solutions.
Excellent usability:
- Supports native, MDM/EMM and custom apps, with APIs available for mobile app development;
- Operates in both on-line and off-line mode;
- Complete self-service -- no security officer required to facilitate issuance of derived credentials.
Route1's security solutions are trusted by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Navy, and other government and enterprise organizations. Route1 protects government and enterprise from the risk of data loss due to unauthorized mobile access and privacy non-compliance, while enabling a more productive work force. DerivID is the newest offering in the company's suite of patented enterprise security solutions that combines best-in-class authentication, data security and secure communications with streamlined administration tools, running on a proven, trusted infrastructure.
Tony Busseri, chief executive officer of Route1, concluded: "The launch of DerivID represents a significant milestone for Route1, as we continue to execute on our plan to diversify our product portfolio and leverage our deep relationships within the military and civilian departments of the U.S. government. With the unveiling of DerivID, as well as the launch of MobiENCRYPT in August, 2016, along with our flagship MobiKEY technology, Route1 now offers a more diversified suite of technology solutions that we expect to increase sales and business development opportunities."