I think Canada is different because the country does not have the same entrenched government policy to lie about the GDP data. In the US, all economic numbers are massaged and manipulated to the point where it is pure nonsense whatever comes out of the government reported numbers. This includes unemployment numbers, inflation, and even the energy inventories have been subject to interference in order to support whatever government agenda is in favour.
Recall that Canada went through a debt crisis of its own, way before the other developed nations were under strain. The country made meaningful sacrafices to change the imbalance and get back in shape. Canada is now the envy of the G8 in terms of being able to survive the long contraction that lies ahead. If other countries like Ireland, or Greece, or the US for that matter, had made the same tough decisions and taken the medicine when the situation called for that, we would not be seeing the problems the world now faces.
Lets also note that China has tightened lending as a matter of economic policy. Rather than let the economy overheat and go right off the rails, the country has restricted lending to try and engineer a more stable growth. GDP in China has fallen from over 15% at one point, to a more sedate growth in the 6-8% range. Now even that is pretty impressive. But the news was greeted with heavy selling of commodities and the impression created that China is a bubble economy.
If China did not restrain its own growth to sustainable levels then it WOULD be a bubble economy. The country faces huge challenges for sure, but it has made a very smart decision to try and keep the lid on growth. This responsible policy has been interpreted as a bad thing by the media spin factor.
Meanwhile the US has made one bad decision after another, spending beyond any rational hope to avoid catastrophy, and the market seems to approve of this insanity.
So Canada is facing a slower growth. That is what happens during a recession. Our trade is mostly linked to a country that is deep in recession, that is pretending it is NOT in a recession, that lies about key economic data, and is digging a deeper hole in the process. That is what scares me as a Canadian.
cheers!
mike
