I do not presume to speak on behalf of any other regulars on this forum, but someone help me out here so I can understand what it is that is pissing people off. When I posted more frequently I was denounced as a pumper and I still get flak from some clowns that accuse me of taking advantage of investors or some unsavory behaviour that is never clearly explained to me. So how is it when I choose to post less, now I am 'ashamed to show my face'?

I have been around the net long enough that I no longer worry about what people have to say on some anonymous forums. Whatever. People have opinions and feel they can make accusations without consequence. It is beyond my control and its not worth responding to.

I will simply state that I have owned a core holding of ECU/AUM for many years. I buy the dips. I do not regret anything I have ever posted on any forum. Sometimes I am wrong. Not every stock that I buy goes straight up and stays up. This does NOT make me a scumbag, a pumper, a shill, or any of the other suggestions that people seem to throw around. I have more shares now than I did at this time last year, so I am not a pump & dumper. I will probably add more yet if the stock continues to hang around in this range.

I will continue to post here, when I feel like it, and continue to share whatever honest opinion I think is appropriate. I own the stock because I think it is going to go much higher and I want to be around with leverage when that happens. If some people think that equates to my ability to see the future, and then they feel cheated when it does not happen as quickly as they would expect, my suggestion is they should find another guru. I did not ask for the job.

cheers!

coach247

PS: Nick Laird posts a chart of silver juniors that documents the entire basket is off by more than 50% in less than a year. AUM has struggled but it is hardly the only stock that is under pressure right now.

Hi Guys!

I used to post more frequently on this website, and many others. Lately I have been so busy writing for three magazines, plus two separate newsletters, and also with my own website, that I just do not have the time to contribute as frequently anymore. On top of that, I just myself so disgusted with the market action, and the utter failure of the media to acknowledge even the most obvious fraud, that I often turn off my computer and go to the gym or get out of the house. Today was one of those days.

I usually get a lot of email after writing any widely circulated article, but this week the response has been more intense. There is a limit on how many companies I can present in an interview, and the final version is distilled down from a conversation that went on nearly an hour. So even though I remain bullish on stocks like GCU, PZG, IPT, and AUM, I cannot mention all of them. I tried to present some companies that I had not discussed in prior interviews as well.

I am still fully invested in the resource sector, and the vast majority of my personal money is in mining stocks. At this point in the cycle, I think we should be looking at companies that have a legitimate potential to be self funding through production, and/or those that are cashed up and with intense exploration/development work planned. AUM fits my prefered corporate profile and the stock has come down signifcantly in price lately, so I added a bit more. I do not remember the last time I sold a share - certainly it was back in the days before the merger. If I lost confidence in this story I would have sold and moved on.

During the crash in 2008 I suggested that we would see new all-time highs in gold, silver and copper. It was not an easy thing to state at that time when almost everyone was throwing in the towell for the entire sector. It just took a bit of time for people to understand that the world was not coming to an end. I feel exactly the same way about the current market set up. We probably have to put up with a flat or downward trending market for the next few days until the stock options expiry window closes, and then we can enjoy a bounce. The only weapons left for the market riggers is to say scary things about the metals, and to keep the money flow wide open - while telling the market that everything with the overall economy is recovering. Its all BS and if one can understand that, then it makes sense to just hold on through this and buy the dips.

cheers!

mike

Hi Cockerel!

The market is what it is. I am simply stating that the concept of an efficient market is a myth. Over the longer term the value of any one particular stock may accurately reflect the underlying fundamentals for the company, but on the short term the intense distortion of overt manipulation and background noise can leave most investors wrong-footed. Just for example, look at the swings in value of the big banking institutions from one month to the next. Some entire sectors are completely out of line with historic value multiples. Sure, the price on any given day reflects the collective independant action of many participants. But that is surely 'wrong' nonetheless when so much of the trading is driven by HFT, algos, option stunts, etc.

You may say that the market is reacting to all information available at any given time. Fine. What about the fact that even forensic accountants cannot accurately state what the real loan exposure may be for many large corporations today? That reporting is a sham when the FOMC has allowed companies to lie about the real value of their assets under management.

Case in point: Goldman Sachs stated last week that the net value of their exposure to Europe is just $2.4 billion. This is pure crap, because that "NET" amount includes derivative exposure and phony swaps that are backed by nothing but promises. So if indeed Goldman has counterparties that must pay off in order for the loss side of a bet to be covered, and those counterparties are also insolvent, then what in fact exists is a house of cards. Goldman stock traded higher on the news however. Efficient market or mass delusion?

What was the value of MF Global in our efficient market immediately before that company blew up? Was the market wrong? There are many other financial corporations trading today with huge market values that are quite probably also zombie grade. Is the market right or wrong in how investors collectively value this crap?

I will not even bother ranting about the total lack of ethical oversight from regulatory agencies at this point. That adds just one more layer of distortion to further displace the market from any rational valuation parameters. Since when can you have the senior management of a corporation state publicly that the financials are sound, and then four days later have the company completely insolvent, as was the case with Lehman Bros? You cannot suggest that the market is 'right' when the disclosure used to measure risk is a crock of $hit.

How about when short operations distribute false information and carpet bomb a market with sell orders, as we saw with SVM? High profile reporting of fraud and intense short selling should be fair game? Even after the story has been proven a scam, and SVM has worked to debunk the reports, the stock is still trending near multi-year lows. But the marekt is right? I think not...

I could make many such examples. I rest my case. My point is simply that AUM has been driven far below fair value and I do expect we can look forward to a sustained recovery as more rational sentiment is expressed over the long term.

cheers!

mike

The sentiment level for AUM most of last year was terrible, and I read way too many posts that pointed out how the stock was grinding lower while others were moving higher, or how AUM was down even as silver was up. Some people speculated that there was something brewing behind the scenes to justify that underperformance, along the lines of 'the market is never wrong...'. My experience suggests that market is wrong all the time. It is the willingness to buy good companies when the sentiment stinks and the market is sending scary signals that can build the biggest returns during a bull market. And to think how many people are too dumb even to spot a bull market...

This month AUM has been leading the sector higher. Even as many of the other juniors have been ignoring the strength in gold and silver, Golden Minerals has been trending higher in an uptrend. Those who saw fit to whine on the forum day after day when it was going lower seem to have overlooked this fact. Even that idiot Inka Klown was quick to post his stupid charts showing ECU at the bottom of the pack last year. I do not bother to read his nonsense but I will hazzard to guess he has not been posting any charts for AUM lately in relation to the rest of the sector. No bias there, eh?

It precisely the action of the idiot shorts that probably explains why AUM is moving up now, and was trending lower last year. When the next updated short interest is published for AUM, I will expect to see a nice decline. People can rant and rave, point figures are short term action, and speculate on scary unknown dangers, but at the end of the day a good company will command a stock premium worthy of its inherent value. I think AUM is a very solid company, and it will eventually regain all of the lost ground during the bear market phase. I am just going to enjoy it while it lasts though, because ups and downs along the way are inevitable and its just a matter of time until the bears are at it again anyway.

I bought more AUM in the fall and I am still underwater on the extra shares. I fully expect to sell for a profit though later this year.

cheers!

mike

Hi Baba!

I was commenting on this back when the merger was first announced. ECU was running out of cash and to keep the mill running they were extending development directly into the ore zones. This creates two problems:

1) It dilutes your ore because you must excavate a much larger volume of rock to allow access for heavy machinery and thus your vein material is mixed and blended with waste rock for a much lower overall grade

2) It limits the amount of mining you can do because the tunnels must be cleared of rock before the next phase can be blasted to extend development.

The effect of the above two factors is lower production, lower grade, and higher costs. This would account for a large part of the sluggish performance that ECU was reporting.

So now that AUM has had some time to clean up the operations and the company has the access to the funding to do it right, they are now driving a drift parallel to the vein. The drift is extended in waste rock, and opens up access for heavy equipment for the entire vein structure. They blast it out, and then muck and hual the waste quickly. Then crosscut tunnels are extended from the drift to access the ore material in stopes. The stopes are opened across narrow intervals to limit the waste, therefore the average grade of the material run through the mill is higher. And because they do the work to open an access drift first, they can open several stopes along the structure and mine from all of them on the same level. So you get more rock through the mill, more efficiently, with higher average grades, and the economics of the whole operation improve.

Meanwhile, while the company is mining in the stopes, another level of drifting can be opened up and the process continues.

cheers!

mike

I am a student of history and my observations on the current social norms contrast sharply with the reality reported in the 30s. Take for example the simple concept that during the depression there were few 'social safety nets' in place to help the less fortunate, but people were more likely to pull together as a community during hard times. The family unit was more coherent and people lived with stronger values towards hard work, the obligation to share with others less fortunate, and the ability to distinguish between right and wrong. People also took pride in their willingness to work hard and be independant, fully responsible for their own success.

Compare with the way things are today, and the mentality to get rich at all costs. There is hardly any shame associated with divorce, or single parents, high debt loads, second mortgages, etc. Most people have an entitlement philosophy today, and demand that others contribute to furnish the perks of a modern lifestyle. People are often quick to make excuses or point the finger of blame for their personal circumstances. There is a drive for instant gratification and much lower standards bluring the distinction between right and wrong.

In short, the current society is set up to have a much more difficult time to get through a prolonged economic downturn, especially if it also involves a reduction in the amount of spending from government for social benefit programs. I still believe that deep down, most people are good and trying their best to do the right thing. I have no doubts however that the minority of scumbags that are utterly immoral is now a larger chunk of the population and I would expect crime to be a bigger problem if things really go off the rails.

cheers!

mike