Vz may attempt at some poin to settle with an offer of 1 bil but personally I do not see the logic of kry settling for that amount. Of course, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush but one robin in the hand is not worth two eagles.
In determining the apppropriateness of an offer, as it relates to this case, one must consider the upside of an arbitration award, the downside of an award, the chance of prevailing on liability, and the chance that the arbitration panel will award lost profits. I see the chance that the arbitration panel will find in favor of kry (liability) near 100%. The worst kry could do is recover their costs, roughly 500 mil, and the best they could do is 3.4 bil + interest. I don't know how exactly how interst would be calculated here but it could easily bring the potential recovery to over 4 bil. The only consideration left is whether the company will be able to recover lost profits, which would compromise the bulk of an award. Kry's designated arbitrator is one of the world's leading experts on the award of lost profits in international arbitrations. His analysis of the subject in his leading article would argue strongly in favor of an award of lost profits to kry. His analysis is not seriously disputed by other experts. If he would vote for lost profits, this would then mean that we would need only one of the other two arbitrators to agree with him. I see the chance of an award of lost profits as 60% on a very conservative basis. My view of an award, which may be less than objective, is as follows:
100% (chance of a finding of liability) x 500 mil (costs) = 500 mil
+60% (chance of an award of lost profits) x lost profits (which I assume is 3.4 bil less 500 mil costs = 2.9 bil) = 1.74 bil
+ 600 mil interest =
500 mil + 1.74 bil + 600 mil = 2.84 bil recovery.
This analysis assumes that kry's expert's calulation of lostprofits is accurate. It also asumes all the other things I have stated. My only point is that I see 500 mil as the least amount of a recovery with 4 bil as the max and that I see the chance of an award of lostprofits as reasonably high. I don't therefore think the company will accept 1 bil when the potential is so much higher and the least they could likely recover is 500 mil.
The foregoing is a very general discussion and not intended to be anywhere near perfect. It is intended primarily to stimulate thought.
Of course, what will be will be, but if any of you are considering buying more shares, this type of analysis is mandatory.
