"Before our FS came out the price of molybdenum plunged from the rates we used in the PFS so much so that our total revenues in the PFS were 50% from moly and in the FS revenues from moly were down to 12% of the total. We knew that information beforehand and should have realized it would have a significant effect on the final results."
Fair enough Prospekt. But if we truly want to critically attempt to evaluate the worth of this project we have to be open to both the positive and negative aspects. Many of the poeple here who have valid concerns are often labelled as bashers and have their posts removed or even banned. EVEN IF someone pointed that out to you at that time would you have believed it?!? This board is posivitely biased, like it or not. Let's take your most recent attempt or comment to try and fairly value this project as an example:
"I think we have to keep a running balance of all the factors that go into the value of this project. The dollar is down and that adds significant value. The price of copper is down and that reduces the value. The price of fuel is down (per cbew) and that adds value."
Looking at this statement (and the few factors it contains) alone, one would be inclined to believe that the value of the project has gone up. But is that really true? Let's look at the factors described in the economic results of the BFS:
Summary of Economic ResultsItemUnitBase Case3-Y Avg* CaseSpot Price** CaseReal Options CaseMetal Price
| Copper |
US$/lb |
3.25 |
3.63 |
3.69 |
3.25 |
| Gold |
US$/oz |
1,445.00 |
1,445.00 |
1,736.00 |
1,445.00 |
| Silver |
US$/oz |
27.74 |
27.74 |
32.71 |
27.74 |
| Molybdenum |
US$/lb |
14.64 |
14.64 |
11.34 |
14.64 |
| Exchange Rate |
US:Cdn |
0.97 |
0.99 |
1.02 |
0.97 |
Now what are those numbers today?
Copper: 3.06
Gold: 1168
Silver: 16.15
Molybdenum: 9.53
Exchange Rate: 0.87
Now the base case NPV 8% was 513 million (NPV 5% = 1694 million) when the BFS came out at the base prices described above. So the question is do all of you really think the exchange rate (and perhaps some slight change in fuel costs) will negate the drop in every metal price? Fair enough if you want to believe it will but at least try to examine more than a few aspects. I'm sure there are even more factors not taken into account here that will play a role (positive AND negative). But as it stands today at these metal prices I have yet to see a compelling argument that we are worth more than the numbers in the BFS.
Feel free to argue that the copper/gold etc. is forcast to be in shortage in the future. Those are again what if scenarios/speculation. It's fine to say I like this stock going forward under assumption A, B, C, etc. (eg. Copper price over $3.50, Gold over $1600/oz, etc.) but at least list those assumptions. I would absolutely love this stock too at $4.00 copper, but at current metals prices, the numbers don't lie. Let's try to look at all the numbers...
Cheers.
