I think he would much rather support XL because the US is a long-term stable economic partner. If Enbridge really believes it can maintain a tariff that wont squeeze the industry and still make it profitable to ship to Asia then I would love to see them build it. In addition, it would be nice if the pipe was in the ground at the moment to take advantage of the diffs, but that environment has never lasted long historically. The Brent- WTI spread is just high currently because of middle east instability, and has been volatile like this since 2004. One could argue that because of rapid change coming to the middle east, we might even see a resurgence on the production side from countries. This is already happening in Iraq, and once things settle in Libya, the diff will narrow again (Libya supplies most of its oil to Europe).
Speaking about pacific oil economics, take Alaska North Slope (ANS) for example. It has only ever really been shipped to California and the lower 48 because the pricing environment has never really been stable enough to warrant it being shipped in large quantities to Asia. Now that ANS has sharply declined, it is not even seen as a factor in supply. It really raises the question of whether or not oil from Canada will reach Asia in the near future.
If XL goes through, it would probably be years before a West Coast line is even considered again. And I can assure you Harper wont be in office.
What do you guys think?
