"I use a little higher NG price because of the hedge and the CDN dollar dropping vs U.S. $."
The hedge you are referring to is called Costless Corral. It applies to 1/3 of Luke production and it ends in Oct 2008. When the NG price is $7.5 to $10 it has no effect on the revenue received by CLL. From the practical point of you you can ignore it when you do the cash flow estimate.
$ exchange rate is irrelevant since the LUKE is selling and producing the NG in Canada. It effects the MRC cash flow.
Speaking of a devil. Luke contribution the CLL free cash flow is none (zero if not negative). Required CAPEX to replaced depleting production so far is exceeding the cash flow it generates.
Purchase of LUKE by CLL was a bad investment ,which diluted the shareholder value ($1 to $1.5 per share) and bitumen assets by 25%. If you are worry about POD1 NG cost you could use the hedge instead decreasing the shareholder value.
Yes , on Monday we should see increase in CLL SP. If it happens we can give the credit to USA government which is nationalizing two biggest mortgage companies which in return is wakening US dollar and pushing the commodities (oil) higher. Futures market are showing $2 up for WTI for tomorrow morning. We may see nice bounce on market sentiment.
