Connacher Oil and Gas

Spide

Good work on Q3/4 CLL numbers.

September 10/2008 Dil-Bit prices dropped to $79. $30 lower then July average ($108). Raw bitumen price will be about $50 - $55 and CLL netbacks will dropped to $20 to $25. Both our estimates (my at 45 cents cash flow for 2008) maybe overly optimistic.

It looks like market does not care about any reasonable evaluation. The hedge funds deleveraging of commodity trade continue. Some of them were 30 to 50 times leverage (short $US long commodity). It will take time to clean up this mess.

There are unbelievable value in this sector. Some blue chip energy will recover much faster then CLL. 75% in cash. To chicken to triger a buy button.