Good work with your spread sheet. Very similar to my own which I posted with Q2 numbers. The same with the sensitivity rate.
My numbers (net cash flow) are 15 cents per share for Q3 and 45 cents per 2008. It wont be much higher in 2009 (higher royalties and interest expenses). Earnings for 2008 about 20 cents.
The minor difference are the bitumen netbacks and the average wighted NG prices.This is the Website for Alberta NG cash prices (as oppose to useless paper contracts which are the speculators prices):
http://www.ngx.com/marketdata/NGXIAS...
You can see that average Aug and Sep prices are much lower. September cash prices are below $6. Yes I know about part of LUKE production is hedge.
What does it mean for CLL SP?
If you are obsessed with the earnings per share model : (15 to 20) multiples X 20 cents= $3 to $4 per share.
If you prefer cash flow per share: (6 to 8) X 45 cents = $2.7 to $3.6 per share.
If you are like the RBC annalist prefer 70% discount to NAVPS evaluation model : 0.7 X $6 = $4.2
And the most importend model is the investor sentiment which can drive the SP to the extrime on the down side and upside . IMO the CLL SP in 2008 and 2009 will stay in the $3 to $4.5 price range.
