I was hedging my bet on AEM throwing its hat in the ring (for sure) a bit by saying, in a previous post, "unless AEM decides to team up with G, heaven forbit".
Well now that the "heaven forbit" thing just happened and G is in effect controls 19.9% (OS?) of PRB. G total shareS + wts holdings: 8.5 + 7.32 + 2.35wts = 18.17M shares, assuming all wts are exercised (@ 2.10 giving PRB treasury $5M).
Some questions remain:
- Why stopped at 19.9%. Why not just get the entire package from AEM, i.e. buy up the 3.25M wts for another $6.8M to get 18.17 +3.25 = 21.95M = 24.17%? Is there anything magic about 19.9%? (Note: 24.7% + 4.6% BoD & Management = 29.3%).
- A similar question could be posed to AEM: If cash is what it went after then why not just sell the whole thing, including the leftover 3.25M wts ($6.82M @ 2.10), more cash going into PRB treasury). So, what's the reason to keep the 3.25M wts (3.5%OS), anyone?
Speculation:
AEM is no longer there as a potential bidder and G now controls a sizable block which could reach 29.3 + 3.5 = 32.8% (almost half way to the required 2/3). If there is no white knight coming soon then the PRB goose would appear to be cooked, and consumed shortly.
So, opposition to the current deal would help anything? consequence of a 1/3 opposition is clear. But, what about more than 10% opposition? Would that provide an "incentive" for G to sweeten the deal, at least expanding the package for the new PRB (more cash, at least $12M from AEM wts, plus income form other wts and opts). Giving the new PRB all the cash in PRB treasury to explore the new package, which would include the RoF and all the land outside the Borden Gold mine, would gain more acceptance from the dissenting group. Of course, G can always throw in a few more dollars in a killer offer to get a clear majority for the trophy.
goldhunter (waiting for another week, or 2 at most, for a white knight galloping up around the bend)
