"How about, the first clue into an off-take arrangement, this Met Powders release. “20,000t at $200M”. I know with Met Powders production planned at 25-30%, Total production would need be in order of 70 ktpa." (Mark).
I was trying to decode the NR, particularly that section, 20kt@ $200M as well. G. had it figured out first, but it took me a while to locate that passage. OK, at least there is now a hint/confirmation for graphite price for PM applications, $10k/tonne.
For the sake of discussion, I would assume a 50kt/year production (as a comparison to your 70kt/yr). A lower bound of 20% for PM applications would yield 10kt/yr ( and this would be the amount for a possible off-take. Also, assuming a production cost of $2.5k/tonne ZEN would have a $75M profit/yr for a 10kt/yr (20% of ZEN 50kt/yr) production for PM application.
So, we have the following potential profits:
- PM applications: $75M for 10kt/yr
- e-car batteries: 20kt/yr, @ price $8.5 - 10k/t (profit margin: $6k/t x 20kt/yr = $120M)
- storage devices: 20kt/yr, @ price $8.5 - 10k/t (same profit margin of $120M/yr)
- nuclear application: deliberately ignored for now (wait for a few years, production can always be ramped up to take care of this).
Potential profit: $75+ 120 + 120 M = $315M/yr, which is no chump change.
If you think that the above math is too conservative, then plug in yours (including a ramped up production scenario).
goldhunter
