Another good one, sinbob.
I'm not quite the conspiracy theorist you are, but getting there. :)
There are reasons why SFMI's sp has lagged way below where it should be. Not necessarily good ones, but things that might keep the warier or less informed einvestors away.
One reason is that few can understand why Kinross gave up the properties (especially when their geo was so high on it)- Why would they give up the properties if they were so good? The answer of course was the whacking of gold. Kinross ran into a cash crunch when gold hit a bottom and gave up non-producing properties to concentrate on generating revenue.
Another reason is some of the many problems typical of a startup. SFMI needed to raise money, management was inexperienced in the field, there were what seemed like avoidable delays. I know a lot of otherwise serious long term investors finally gave up during the protracted Melba mill fiasco when the imminent production promised was put off repeatedly and then disappeared when SFMI finally gave up on Melba. That resulted in over a year wasted and a lot of dilution.
Another is the lack of "proven" reserves. We all know that there is a lot of gold and silver there based on historical records, recent sampling and assays, geological reports, etc. But none of these are "compliant', and what sampling, assaying, etc. was conducted was not done to the specific standards of today that would allow SFMI to legally claim any reserves. So they are obligated to state that they don't have any "proven" reserves. This means no financing through banks that require the results of such studies before they'll even consider a loan. SFMI has been lucky to get financing through unconventional means and with limited dilution. So why didn't SFMI do all the drilling and testing necessary to prove up a 43-101 type resource? For the simple reason that proving up a resource takes lots of money and time, and SFMI already they knew what they had. Their strategy was to get a mill in operation as quickly and economically as possible, and then fund everything else with revenue from the unprocessed ore. Definitely a non-standard situation, and one that takes an investor a lot of effort to appreciate, especially an investor not familiar with the mining sector.
All of these reasons contributed to the market pricing SFMI as more of a startup or explorer than as a near term (now current) producer. In fact, it is nearly unheard of for a company to go from start to production so quickly, and SFMI did it without having to achieve the "milestones" that typically ratchet up the price. The market may just be waking up to the fact that many of these milestones, such as starting an exploratory drilling program, hitting the big hole, conducting an infill drilling program, announcing loads of drill results, proving up reserves, producing a 43-101, getting financing, etc. were unnecessary for SFMI.
But all of these reasons will disappear very quickly once SFMI starts reporting the production of gold and silver, more definite values of the grades of the material they are working with, and most importantly revenues. Once SFMI starts producing the kind of revenues we expect, the price will go from that of an explorer to that of a producer very quickly. And if other significant news is announced, such as the results of drilling that prove up the grades and quantities of the resources that are known to be there or big financing to reopen the mines and ratchet up production as quickly as possble, then SFMI may move further up the ladder very quickly.
