I am just going over some of the info as there seems to be some questions about it-and it has been a long time since I seriously looked Noront and since I am getting heavily invested again, I thought it was a good idea. From the Feasibility study, we have:
A discounted cash flow (DCF) based on the assumed metal prices indicates:
- An aftertax net present value at an 8-per-cent discount rate (NPV8) of $543-million;
- An aftertax IRR (internal rate of return) exceeding 28 per cent;
- An estimated initial capital investment of $609-million;
- An estimated life-of-mine sustaining capital cost of $160-million;
- Estimated operating costs (including road access fees) of $97 per tonne or $2.34 per pound of nickel equivalent or negative 31 cents per pound of nickel net byproduct credits;
- An estimated mine life of 11 years;
- A capital payback period of under three years based on a 100-per-cent equity project.
and then this:
The project description is as follows:
- One-million-tonne-per-year throughput rate, producing approximately 150,000 tonnes of high-grade nickel-copper concentrate per year;
- A proven and probable mineral reserve as shown in the associated table.
PROVEN AND PROBABLE MINERAL RESERVE
Classification Tonnes Nickel Copper Platinum Palladium
(1,000) (%) (%) (g/t) (g/t)
Proven 5,264.0 2.02 1.04 1.01 3.45
Probable 5,867.0 1.38 0.72 0.78 2.76
Proven and probable 11,131.0 1.68 0.87 0.89 3.09
- Metallurgical recoveries of: nickel -- 83.1 per cent; copper -- 89.7 per cent; platinum 74.0 per cent; palladium -- 82.3 per cent; gold -- 76.7 per cent;
- Underground mining to be conducted utilizing highly productive blast hole sublevel stoping;
- All major earthworks to utilize non-acid-generating mine waste rock as aggregate;
- Surface disturbance to be limited to less than 50 hectares;
- Camp-supported mining operation to be supported by a year-round airstrip;
- All major mining facilities (including the mill) to be located underground;
- All tailings to be stored underground as paste fill;
- Concentrate will be trucked to a rail load-out facility near Nakina along a toll road following the north-south all-season road corridor supported by the Province of Ontario and Cliffs;
- Power to be generated on-site with the use of diesel generators, with recovered heat used to dry concentrate in a facility positioned on the surface area adjacent to the power plant;
- Initial mine production to be from an internal ramp;
- Production ramps to be developed after the third year to access the lower levels of the deposit.
The DCF model includes operating costs to operate the mine and process plant, selling of bulk concentrate, environmental monitoring, overall management of the proposed operation, closure costs and taxes.
At current metal prices (Aug. 31, 2012), the DCF indicates an aftertax NPV8 of $233-million and an IRR of 18 per cent.
One huge discrepancy here is the NPV8 using assumed prices ($543M) vs current metal prices ($233M) and this IMO also plays a role in our low share price. However, current forecasts have nickel prices recovering in 2015-2016, probably around the $10 area. Please note that this NPV8 is for the reserves only as no value has been given to another 9M tons of high grade Ni/Cu/Pt/Pd in the resource category. I would surmise that this 9M tons would add significant value to our NPV8 since all our infrastructure cost will have been paid already. However, this value is reduced as we would not be mining this ore until year 12.
From the technical report by Micon dated April 18th 2011 page 89, we can see that the reserves are from surface down to a depth of 700m. The resource category, is from 700m to 1350. From page 7, they discuss how massive sulfides could be present in the middle and lower portion of Eagle's nest and if they are present, they would increase both tonnage and grade. They also discuss how Eagle's nest is open to the South and down dip. However, they admit expansion to the South is limited but that the downdip area has the potential to significantly add to our resource.
All this to say that our current NPV8 worst case scenario with the current metal prices still gives us over $1 per share with no value for the 9M tons resource, the potential to add significantly to this resource at depth, no value for the chromite or the rest of our land. Can NOT go lower...sure it can. Will it someday be significantly much higher, Guaranteed!!
Glorieux
