Unfortunately, you and I won't get much choice (unless you hold a lot more shares than I do ! ). An initial bidder, with an immaculate sense of timing, will not make an unreasonably low hostile bid, but would normally strike a figure that will at least interest the control group. That will be well in excess of $3 in my view because the value is there and the control group has a lot of skin in the game. Otherwise they bide their time and drill, drill, drill. An initial bidder who makes a hostile and unreasonable bid will at best force NOT into play. That is good for me in my view, but would be a piece of superclutzy M&A work because it pulls big folks out of the woodwork emotionally who might have otherwise remained uninvolved. (I'm one of those loner types who does not see POT going to BHP because the initial offer was too skinny , but brought into focus for many the unique gem that is now being auctioned. Maybe at $150+ BHP would have got it on a strong first swing. Someone surely is buying it, and the market now predicts north of 150 apparently.)
If CLF is not interested in NOT at say north of $3, we could have a long wait ahead of us because there is nothing really strategic in my view to any other potential bidders. Nothing that is, unless CLF made a bid. That is why I would expect an adequate, non-hostile bid within the next year or so, regardless of the source. I see a lot of analogies to the Marathon PGM situation.
Meanwhile, if no bid, NOT eventually has to raise more money , much of which would come from existing holders and not likely at inflated prices.
