You should at least try to understand some of the more important factors behind what call the "trends". NOT is a great venture and enterprise founded and operated by some extremely capable folks who will ultimately in my view define one or more world class resources. Having said that, why has the price been so weak?
To paraphrase, why has the market not assigned increasingly greater valuation in excess of the current market capitalisation of this stock?
First, the world credit meltdown and uncertainty about growth forward painted a resilient picture of uncertainty where many were forced to liquidate positions and have not or cannot return. All valuations suffered, even for thousands of outfits with little risk and improving metrics.
More recently, many of us expected a counter bid for FWR and possibly for NOT. When that did not occur, in particular no sign of Xstrata for the Cr, many did a reality check on what the Big Boys are willing to pay these days for raw resource. The problem is not particular to NOT. Xstrata seems to have enough issues of its own to not protect its dominant status with Cr.
Third, the absolute lack of ardor by Vale to settle in Sudbury told us that Company should be off the list of potential suitors for the foreseeable future. That situation will change but has impacted perceptions of valuation dramatically.
Finally, we have recent bump and grind issues such as FN, but these are simply short term catalysts for price depreciation. The real problems lie with the bigger picture, regaining economic certainty (which is by no means certain !) and market cap that is considerable even at this share price. Objective comments have often been driven away as bashes. But the forum will recover, stay tuned.
IMHO, the gap is being covered, but the inside group will again issue shares (but at what price). I expect to see the next issue down around a buck or so, and will consider buying then even if its 20% more than the funds pay. GLTA
