First Cliff's numbers
Cliffs projects mining 1 million to 2 million metric tons of high-grade chromite ore to produce 400,000 to 800,000 tons of ferrochrome annually
Cliffs stands to add $640m – 1.28b to its existing $2.5+b in revenues based on a market price of $.80/lb
Ok...so that would be on the low side...400,000 tons X .80/lb X 2000 lbs/ton = $640,000,000
Now NOT's numbers
Management's objective was to define a Measured and Indicated chromite resource sufficient to support a 200,000 to 225,000 tonne per annum ferrochrome furnace for 15 years
At then current prices, Noront management estimated that a project of this size would generate approximately $500 million in revenue per year.
Ok...so on the low side that would be......$500,000,000 / 200,000 tons / 2000 lbs = $1.25/lb
Comments:
Ok...so NOT ends up having to retract their statements. Is it because they are using $1.25/ton vs .80/ton. Does NOT think their chrome is superior to FWR's? Assuming they are of equal value and comparing apples to apples we would get the following for NOT
200,000 tons X .80/lb X 2000 lbs = $320,000,000
So, why not change their numbers rather than completely retracting their numbers...lowering their estimates to $320,000,000 instead of $500,000,000?
Which brings me to my next thought. Those last few news releases from NOT. On the surface, it looked like guns a blazing...come out with all you've got. Seems that all they had didn't meet up to what people were expecting....that followed up by the retraction....ouch. Now....with all the so called expertise they have...don't they have someone that used to work for the TSX or SEC or something? Sure has me feeling suspicous.....again.
Seems every time NOT does an announcement, they crash their stock price. End result...retail is not happy. And seems....management don't care....sell your shares if your not happy.
Now, I'm certainly not in the field of PR....but, I would think if I wanted to promote a company....remember...this is my last ditch effort to sway FWR shareholders to tender their shares to NOT...what could I have done differently?
1) don't make mistakes that you may have to retract
2) while they were able to announce the increase of 100 meters at depth, do visuals verify sulphides at further depths....if so, I think in this instance that could be material enough to go against usual standards for the company
3) if progress is being made on any other project they have....now is the time to promote these as well....NOT does have other properties don't they....RN talked about a project in China....what ever happened with that?
4) if there is a major in the background, a vague comment to that effect could be positive....Cliffs somehow got the word out that they had some backing
5) doesn't NOT's chrome contain ANY PGE's? None? Not even a mention? Remember the news from FWR..."Black Thor occurrence has potential to host between 278,000 and 406,000 ounces of platinum as well as between 260,000 and 381,000 ounces of palladium"
Conclusion:
It sure is sad....but I am left once again scratching my head wondering what this team is up to. I truly feel this company has the find of the century. Unfortunately, I also think they do the worst job possible promoting that. In times like these, I sure miss RN.
