Consolidation of the ROF has been a common theme on this forum, specifically the need for it to happen. The way I see it is pretty simple. We have Noront publicly and consistantly saying they want to be the next great canadian mining company. We have Cliffs making the first move by buying a stake in KWG and recently buying a 10% stake in FWR. This was the first foray into getting a consolidation going, primarily for chromite. Cliffs needs both companies to make chromite feasible for the longterm. NOT on the other hand has nickel, copper and PGE's but not enough to pay for the huge infrastructure requirements. There is only room for one chromite producer in North America because the marketplace is small and the competion and protective measures from current producers will be fierce. It will be a very difficult market to break into. So, Noront needs FWR for the same reasons Cliffs does but only one will get it. So NOT finally decides to make a play for FWR, to become a great mining company and to take the opportunity away from Cliffs. The sum of the two(NOT and FWR) is infinitely greater than the two separate entities but more importantly, the joining of the two makes both operations feasible. No rocket science there, just pure economies of scale. It is in NOTs best interest for this to work and if it does, Cliffs will probably just stay in the iron ore business. In the meantime, Cliffs has made an investment and are doing due dilligence on railway and other infrastructure before it commits so there could be some interesting competion for FWR.
Cliffs interest in FWR was applauded when they bought 10% of the company for $0.35 with an option for another 10% at $0.45. So why the nasty opposition to NOTs offer of 1 in 4 which as of today is worth nearly $0.44? There has been nothing in the way of news that would make FWR any more attractive than it was a month ago. With a good news release NOTs offer will be relatively higher. We recently reached $3.00 which would put FWR at $0.75, double what Cliffs paid.
I hope this NOT/FWR consolidation goes through for the sake of the shareholders of both companies. The potential for share price growth will have much more potential than if it was all rolled into Cliffs corporate share structure where we will be a small fish in a big pond with many operations sharing the wealth. On the other hand there is a level of protection with a large company but in the end, it is all about the money and I'm only concerned about mine.
Mike
