lawnbowler;
This is a major hand-waving exercise, not scientific or paranormal precision.
30,000,000 is a round number...if there were exactly 30,000,000 shares, and 2.3 million warrants at 2014 warrant expiry time, then the total number of shares after all shares are exercised is 32,300,000 so each warrant holder actually owns 1/32,300,000 of the company, not 1/30,000,000.
When I do such a back of the envelope calculation, + or - 10% is to be expected. It doesn't change my optimism.
Whether one Newco warrant is worth $300 in 2014 or $100, or even $60, I will consider my ECU warrant BUY to be a success...but I am expecting Newco warrants to be more "properly" valued from a historical perspective, according to 3 main factors:
I DO expect higher gold and silver prices by 2014! ($100-$200 per oz. or more) (ie 3 to 6 times)
I DO expect the Newco to increase its 43-101 estimates substantially over the next 3 years...and remain liquid by increasing production. (50 to 100 percent increase over 3 years would be good)
...and I DO also expect the company by 2014 to be valued nearer to the share/PM ratios of the 2005-2006 years. (which is up 200 or 300%). This IS after all a freakin' bull market in PMs isn't it.??(...and paper money MUST eventually fail).
So, call me an optimist, but I DO anticipate numbers at the higher end of my estimates by 2014. I'm after the most silver ounces I can get for the least amount of money. These warrants do seem to fill my requirements.
These are jmho's. I am biased. I own a substantial number of ECU warrants and I will likely hold them as Newco warrants until near maturity unless something happens to shift my paradigm.
lotus petals,
gildage
