There have been ongoing indications that the court wants this done, sooner rather then later. The shorter Stays, the orders to bring a Plan - meaning "an agreement of compromise or arrangement" - to the judge, now twice. The most recent Mediation order with a caveat to have the Plan submitted before the end of the current Stay.
Maybe, just maybe, the court will allow another Stay on a second failure to compromise, which would be a second strike. Although continual and ongoing Stays are still possible, in all likelyhood the third strike will mean the company is done. Really done. No coulda, shoulda, wouldas. No do-overs. Done. Do the DD, because that is how CCAA works. Campbell is there to make sure the participants understand this. Completely.
History of CCAA is not in favor of unlimited and ongoing Stays. Do the DD. Really. It is not me spreading gloom and doom, etc. I am just letting folks know that CCAA history is very much against unlimited Stays. I am not saying it is not possible, but the idea that the Stays could go on and on until the company receives an arb award is historically unrealistic in CCAA. The reality is that the future cannot be seen, and lotto tickets - which this company basically is - are not a guarantee.
Shareholders may think it is guaranteed because they are owners of the lotto ticket. This seems to be a prevalent theme of stock ownership, that the company is different than all others. But, ownership does not make the company "different" or"special" so much so that they are treated different or special in CCAA. In the eyes of CCAA, there is no reason a Plan of Arrangement/Compromise cannot be completed at this point, typically within a year. No reason.
If ongoing Stays keep happening, great. I will be happy for commons. CCAA is not all rosie colored and so, unfortunately, commons need to be prepared - just in case. I do believe that no matter how it comes out, it will be a good thing because traders on the fence will then have the necessary information to become players, should they choose to. SP may move up or down, but all the cards will be on the table for everyone to see. It will also be a relief to shareholders so that they have closure and can move on with their only worry being the future arbitration.
I am not being negative about the current situation. I am being realistic. The research into how CCAA works, as well as history of other companies coming out, as well as going under, proves this out. I am not writing this to be "right" sometime in the future. I will be more than happy to be wrong. Shareholders need to know all DD in order to make appropriate decisions about the money they care about.
Hope all are doing well, in wherever you are doing.
