I asked if KRY "expected" to get the JV (and permit). KRY responded that they've been told Ven "looks favorably" on the JV and that KRY is therefore, "hopeful".
Saying that they are "hopeful" tells me they do not "expect" to get the JV or the permit.
And they've been hopeful (as I have been) for years. That hopeful feeling melted away, for me, last summer when KRY missed their first stated deadline for the JV. I'm no longer hopeful even if KRY is.
As Todd Bruce once told me: the longer it takes to put together a deal the less chance it will ever happen.
(KRY is like the guy thinking he's going to score tonight just because he's still on the date even though his date is still seating at the table only because he is paying for dinner.)
Therefore I do not expect the JV to go through and I do not expect Fung to pull a rabbit out of the hat. I expect the stock to continue to drift down slightly (barring any good/bad news) until April.
I'm holding on because I expect the stock will rise above 30 cents once arbitration is filed. Not immediately but later when Fung announces financing that gets KRY through arbitration. The one thing Fung has been good at, at the expense of the retail shareholder, is getting financing. The trick this time is not 10-20 million dollars but more than $100 million.
If the stock rises after an announcement of arbitration financing I will probably sell.
Even if KRY wins arbitration years down the road, assuming Chavez is still in power, I would not expect Ven to pay up.
All of this could change if GRZ gets a settlement that is worth more than chump change.
We'll see.
Cividale
