The old NPV discounted at 8% was $2.76 billion. One ballpark way to evaluate CUU shares is 25% of that NPV ($690million) assuming Teck backs in for 75%. We might want to add in the $300 million in expenditures Teck would "owe" CUU. So now we're up to $1 billion for our 25% ($2.50 a share).
The old NPV is going to change. Metal prices have gone up, different processing rates and pit scenarios are being worked out (or have been completed), and reasoned opex forecasts will be made. I'm just not seeing how the new NPV is going to balloon from $2.76 billion up to around $15-16 billion (justifying a $10 share take out if we're paid approx. 25% of the NPV). Teck couldn't justify to their shareholders paying $3.5-4 billion for 25% of a deposit that only has a NPV of $2.76 billion.
Again, I think the NPV is going to go up, and everything is moving in a positive direction for us. I just haven't seen figures/facts justifying $10/share yet. That is a pretty big jump in NPV. I'm assuming metal prices in the coming decades will continue to be cyclical and climb up roughly on par with wage increases, opex, etc. (being conservative).
Many ballpark ways to value a deposit that others have presented in more nuanced ways here(in situ, comparisons with comparable projects, NPV, IRR, etc.). I'm just saying that I think NPV is an important metric and until the 100's of pages of detailed engineering are signed, sealed and delivered, the NPV is a big question mark for Teck or other investors. JMHO.
