Hi Sharky,
You brought some valid points which deserve some answers.
Before I will make the attempt to address your concerns with my limited ability I have to say one more time that Is $1/sh offer possible? post was about the mechanism used by Investor who may consider to put the offer forward.
As always, rebel who is here on guard to protect CLL management point of you, try to diverted the intention of my post , fortunately with limited success.
The link provided gives you the inside to the recent deals in the same category like the CLL is. The average of last 19 deals is $0.77 per 1 barrel of company resources.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/4130/oilsandtransactionsinsi.png
I went overly optimistic in my post and assume that CLL may get 25% more or $1 per barrel of bitumen which would imply $1.3 billion offer or $1/share.
I am not here to convince anyone or convert the believers. Everybody here will make own decision if it ever comes to the vote. Not that long ago over 320 million CLL shares were bought by small investor between 40 to 90 cents. $1 may be a good return on the investment for majority.
Going back to your points:
SAGD+ and lower SOR
As stated on the News and CLL last conference call they have to try it on other pad`s to see if the results can be repeated. Additionally, there is no guarantee that this process will be financially beneficial (calculation of cost and cash flow).
At this time Conacher`s Grade Divide SOR is one of the highest in Alberta which translate to high operational cost. IMO this has nothing to do with the management. Purchaser of CLL would have to straggle with the same problem. IMO this is the characteristics of the bitumen reserves they are stuck with. 20,000 capacity project is producing about 13,500 bbl/d with the declining trend. Our transportation system is very costly as well.
http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/1660/screenshot3009.png
Valuation is a strange thing.In positive sentiment all is ok and people will ramp up values
Totally agree with you on this one. The only thing is that the sentiment will only provide some peaks and valleys on the long declining trend when the fundamentals are not supporting the over-hype expectations.
You actually were promoting the ideas of trading the CLL by taking the advantage of the tops and bottoms. It is not that risky after all if you use the stops and cut the losses quickly. 5 years chart clearly indicates that this is the only way to make some money on CLL.
