In the presentation he is putting the nav per share at $5.78! (based on 458.2 million dilluted shares). The debt knocks out about $3.00 of that. Should we not be sitting around the $2.78 value? Am I missing something?

Skyhigh

Great article WillySam. I have no doubt in my mind that Connacher will eventually be taken over. But hopefully not before we get the share price much higher. Otherwise we are going to have someone come in and take us out at $1.50, saying its a very good price at a 50% premium to the last 30 days trading pattern, and all us long term investors will vomit. Let's hope Algar goes smoothly, and we continue to appreciate before any offers come.

Brian, I value you short term view on the stock. But as I said, I am in for at least 10 years. In 10 years Connacher will be over 50,000 boe, oil will be close to $200 ( I truly believe in peak oil theory, and the current recession is only a small set back in the long term trend) and CLL will be debt free and buying back shares, and maybe even paying a dividend. But of course its a speculative stock. I'm only into it for $30,000. Have been invested since 2005. This is why it is imperative that you do not put everything into this stock that you can't afford to lose. If you believe as I do that oil will be $200 in the long term (> 10 years), put your money in CNQ, ECA, NXY etc. as I have. The big blue chips you can't lose on long term. (You also won't get the bang for the buck that you could from CLL, but that is the price you pay for stability, and the inherent decision that it always comes down to). High risk, high reward, versus low risk, low reward.

Think about it. China is adding 1,000,000 cars a year! India is following the same trend. At some point the USA will not be the top consumer of oil in the world. Eventually we will run out. And viable alternatives are still a long, long ways away.

I'll do my part to prop up the price of oil. Heading out on holidays tomorrow and will be hauling a trailer around.

cheers.

That should have read 90 day or 3 month strategic reserve, but I somehow combined the two into 9 month. My apologies.

Brian,

1. Price of oil is absolutely fantastic for us right now. With a cost of $15/barrel and a slimming differential, the money is and will continue to be rolling in.

2. Manipulation of MoMo boys, whatever, every stock has this and you can't control it. At some point it will go up. I am in this with a 10 year horizon, so who cares about the manipulation at this point. Unless you are a day trader how we get from point a to point b is insignificant.

3. POD 1 performance is fantastic. Guesella says they'll get to 10,000 by 3rd quarter. I truly believe they will get there, so again no issue.

4. POD 1 proves that they can do it. They've been there, done that. If anything POD2 will be better executed, and benefit from lower labor cost, and most likely come in under budget.

5. China is trying to fill a 9 month strategic reserve, similar to the USA. They are trying to buy up huge reserves of oil (which my OT post was about that somebody found offensive, though if you are an expert trader, you realize the true importance of multi-billion dollar takeovers by China, and how they will have a DIRECT impact on our share price and possibly our entire company if we get big enough). Not to mention India, and many other emerging countries, and the eventual turn around in the western countries. Oil will hit $200/barrel in a few years.

My only concern is ability to pay back debt, and dillution. Hopefully neither of these will be an issue soon.

Good luck to the longs.

Haven't been here for a long time, for quite frankly there was not much to talk about. But a 20% pop in one day is definitely something to talk about. Anybody heard any juicy rumours?