Could drop to .90, but probably hang around .95 to a 1.00. I think it will be sold for 1.6 billion, and common shareholders get $1.20 p/share. You often see buyouts at a 30% premium based on a 20 day avg. share price.

I think Jurek is right about the Senior Note holders calling the shots. Their chief concern is principal payback with a decent return. And Goldman Sachs was hired to sell the company, not maximize shareholder value. Sell the co., get the commision and move on to the next deal.

The good news is when it comes to predicting share price I'm wrong most of the time.

Did DG foresee his coup de grâce when he composed their last corp. presentation? Pas possible!!! Geezus H. , what a melodrama this co. has been. It's kinda funny in a black humour sort of way. Picture if you will, DG on deck, calm seas after a brief yet powerful storm, tweaking the brass buttons on his CEO jacket, mighty pleased after booting his traitorous captain and lieutenants off the good ship CLL. "Glory, here I come," thinks Dick. Then Whump!!, a gigantic purple squid pops up outta nowhere and knocks him off the boat too! Ouch! That must have really hurt. CLL was his baby. Poor bugger. Well maybe not 'poor' like us s'holders, but ... ah y'know what I mean.

I kinda admired his last pr, declaring in it how the co. was gonna move forward to better and brighter things from here on in, and yessirree this time it's gonna be a great year. The wind is at our backs and by god, we have a plan! I thought, hmm.. DG well he's consistent (a pumper) and he's fighting for his shareholder, not like those traitors who wanted to sell out for under a dollar. Then Whump!!!

When the bell finally tolls on CLL, I'll miss this board.

P.S. I predict buyout at $1.20 ps.

On the 'other board' some have posted that a lot options owned by insiders and strategic outsiders :) have a strike price of $1.40, therefore a buyout offer would have to be $1.50 to entice the option holders to sell. Does anyone know if the $1.40 figure is correct? There about 26.3m options held by employees, directors etc. Fidelity I think still owns 19m shares, dunno at what price.

Gotta think this co. is worth more than .79c I'd take $1.50 in a heartbeat! Expecting anything more than that I think is a fantasy.

Did you watch BNN Market Call November 30 when Eric Nutall from Sprott was on? He has a big following. His response to a caller about CLL was that it was a highly leveraged, low margin operator. I think he bought lots of shares at one time, don't know at what price, but now he suggested selling at .80 cents

http://www.bnn.ca/Shows/Market-Call-Tonight.aspx

Market Call Tonight - Part Five [11-30-11 7:35 PM] at the 2.07 minute mark

Oil is falling, probably dilbit too although I haven't checked lately. So as goes the price of oil, so goes the price of oil company stocks. Look at the big Cdn majors, their sp also taking a hit. Absent any material change in CLL's (mis)fortunes, and going by DG's last news release, nothing has changed. This still is a company that generates a tiny profit and pays it's bills. So CLL just caught up in the oil price downdraft I think. Will be interesting to see where the bottom is formed.

But it can work both ways. When the colder weather rolls in, up goes oil and up go the sp in that sector.

DG's op updates have always been a good read. I suspect he has or had literary ambitions.

"...We continue to be encouraged by the stability and improving reliability of our production at Great Divide...."

Well, I'm delighted at the prospect of imagining a better world than the one I live on.

So reading outside the box, production at GD is, at best, flat. Not growing. And flat production is not good enough. Mr. Market doesn't think so.

Seen the latest slide presentation? "The stage is set" Act I, Act 2 .... What CEO in his right mind would present their billion dollar company as a theatrical production? Are shareholders supposed to be ticket holders? Krikey! I hope this play has a happy ending!

As to the future, another quote from the op update:

"... A significant capital commitment will be required from the successful joint venturer to finance the plant, facilities and wells required to realize this new capacity, thereby earning an interest in Connacher's established undeveloped probable reserves in the region. Connacher intends to retain operatorship of the project...."

Hmm, no mention of being co-owner of the production. Who would spend $600 mm to receive say 90% of 24K boes with netbacks of say ... $25 per boe. And let Connacher be the sole operator, they who have proved so adept at achieving 70% production at GD.

I'm just having a bit of fun here. I want CLL to succeed, I like rooting for the underdog.

Will CLL be bought? Billion dollars debt. Half a billion shares outstanding. Current production of 15k boes p/d Prospect of adding 20k more in 2 years, if you want to cough up another $600 mm. Give me a $1 a share right now and I'll leave quietly.