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Re: Conference Call - Audio Replay

Thanks for the audio, gumby!


The most valuable and important segment of the Conference Call, discussing the location of the drill holes reported in recent news releases (11:40-13:29), is transcribed below:


11:40 And the other thing is, where were the drill holes drilled?


11:45 The holes were drilled in various parts of the main anomoly, and


11:50 And a couple were drilled in the main central corridor (garbled: a few more from?) A4


11:55 and these were initial drill holes


12:00 drill holes (garbled: targets that went into targets) went into


12:05 geophysical targets outlines by quantec.


12:10 Not any specific ones, not the top 11.


12:10 These were all done for information purposes


12:15 so that we could just set more drill holes in with a more


12:20 fine tuned location...


12:22-13:15 ---------- (53 seconds of silence, noises) -------------


13:15 ...that information and take that into consideration,


13:20 but just please get the information from reliable sources.


53 seconds of the most valuable information given by Lori -- the details about where the drill holes may have been located -- was missed! I had hoped it was just my connection, but unfortunately, gumby1116's recording was identical to what I heard.

over 12 years ago
New minimum viability calculations

Well, this one DDH_TE_06 core (with the additional TE-11-06 details from today's release) is worth $4.00/share, if it represents only a 325m square deposit, and the remainder of the overburden averages only 0.30g/ton... That yields 1.2 million ounces. Assumes $1,600/oz gold, worth 25% in the ground:


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AupP7v6kPdVidGg0eFdWSnk1MWozVGgxZ1Uyd0hWVHc


Good news!

over 12 years ago
Re: Drill result averages -- working spreadsheet

A few people have asked what my background is, to come up with $17.00/share from this data.


Well, I hate to guess. I'm a programmer by trade, specializing in communication protocols, encryption, data analysis. So, I did up a quick analysis.

What we *know*, is the intercepts and their grades. Lets assume that they represent some "slabs" of gold bearing ore, with a certain width and length.


What we *don't* know, is what everything in between holds. We know we got some dry holes, and we suspect that the rest are really not yet representative of the anomolies -- they were nibbling around the edges with some of these holes, if I recall.


So, what is the *worst* case scenario? What is the absolute minimum grade of the rest of the "overburden", before the whole thing is un-minable -- and hence, probably worthless.


Fortunately, we can figure that out. It turns out to be 0.15 g/ton (assuming a strip-mine cut-off grade of 0.30 grams/ton). If all the rest of the holes have similar intercepts and average 0.15 grams/ton in the "overburden" portions, we'll be golden.


What is the chance that, in the middle of the anomolies, we won't get 0.15 grams/ton? Once we get into the thick of the anomolies, my guess is that it won't be hard to meet these grades, on average.

Anyway, assuming just 0.15 grams/ton in the overburden, and only the same kind of intercepts in the remainder of the cores, we'd be worth $17 bucks a share, with only a 1000m x 500m strip mine, (area averaged at 1/2 depth, totalled over all anomolies over the whole property.


All I set out to accomplish is to put a lower bound on the grade that we *must* get in the overburden to be strip minable, and to get a realistic price, based on that lower bound, based on some previously discussed potential strip mine sizes, based on the size of the big anomoly.


I don't think $17.00 is bad, for what I think is probably a worst-case scenario. I'm expecting better, actually, as future cores come in! I won't be selling...

over 12 years ago
Re: Drill result averages -- working spreadsheet

If the disclosed intercepts (3.96g/ton weighted average) are representative of the full area (length x width) of the deposit, then the corresponding overburden (all the remaining portions of the drills, not yet disclosed) would have some other (lower) gold density.


I guessed.


If the overburden is <0.15 g/ton, then the total deposit will fail to average a strip-minable 0.30 g/ton -- and we'll all be poor. Well, there might be a possibility of shaft mining some of it, but it'll be pretty bad...


But, if the rest of the deposit averages *only* 0.15 g/ton, then the whole mess is strip-minable, and *then*, the average value/share would be $17.65 -- based on a (wild guess) strip mined area of 1000m x 500m.


Reduce that to 500m x 500m, and the share price would be $8.82/share.


All this based on $1,600 gold, and 25% value of gold in the ground.

over 12 years ago
Re: Drill result averages -- working spreadsheet

Sorry, made a mistake; divided by 2.5 tons per cubic meter, instead of multiplied! Results still required 0.15 g/ton throughout overburden to reach cut-off of 0.30 grams per ton for strip mining.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AupP7v6kPdVidGg0eFdWSnk1MWozVGgxZ1Uyd0hWVHc


However, implied share price is now: $17.65/share for gold-in-ground! Much nicer. And, as I said -- these holes are probably *not* representative of the entire deposit! This price *includes* the dry holes, fully weighted.

over 12 years ago
Drill result averages -- working spreadsheet

Hello, all.


Here is a Google Docs spreadsheet that you can use, to compute some weighted averages. Download a copy of it (Click File/Download as/Excel), to change the basic assumptions.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AupP7v6kPdVidGg0eFdWSnk1MWozVGgxZ1Uyd0hWVHc


According to my calculations, using all these drill holes, and assuming that they are completely representative of the entire deposit, we would require the overburden to contain an average of 0.15 g/ton, in order to reach an agregate cut-off grade of 0.30 g/ton for the entire deposit.


If this deposit is strip mined to ~1000m by 500m, to a depth of ~400m, it would contain ~850,000 ounces. At $1,600/oz, and 25% value of gold in the ground, that would imply a stock value of $2.82/share.


Now, these holes are almost certainly *not* representative of the entire deposit. If I recall, some of these holes were purposely around the edges of the anomoly, so I suspect that they are probably lower (even dramatically lower) than the interior of the deposit.


Therefore, I feel these results are very encouraging, and establish a minimum value on the deposit of around $3.00/share. Most importantly, it implies that the deposit is strip-minable. Unless future cores come in with grades very much inferior to these, we are sitting on a very valuable deposit.

over 12 years ago
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