A few people have asked what my background is, to come up with $17.00/share from this data.
Well, I hate to guess. I'm a programmer by trade, specializing in communication protocols, encryption, data analysis. So, I did up a quick analysis.
What we *know*, is the intercepts and their grades. Lets assume that they represent some "slabs" of gold bearing ore, with a certain width and length.
What we *don't* know, is what everything in between holds. We know we got some dry holes, and we suspect that the rest are really not yet representative of the anomolies -- they were nibbling around the edges with some of these holes, if I recall.
So, what is the *worst* case scenario? What is the absolute minimum grade of the rest of the "overburden", before the whole thing is un-minable -- and hence, probably worthless.
Fortunately, we can figure that out. It turns out to be 0.15 g/ton (assuming a strip-mine cut-off grade of 0.30 grams/ton). If all the rest of the holes have similar intercepts and average 0.15 grams/ton in the "overburden" portions, we'll be golden.
What is the chance that, in the middle of the anomolies, we won't get 0.15 grams/ton? Once we get into the thick of the anomolies, my guess is that it won't be hard to meet these grades, on average.
Anyway, assuming just 0.15 grams/ton in the overburden, and only the same kind of intercepts in the remainder of the cores, we'd be worth $17 bucks a share, with only a 1000m x 500m strip mine, (area averaged at 1/2 depth, totalled over all anomolies over the whole property.
All I set out to accomplish is to put a lower bound on the grade that we *must* get in the overburden to be strip minable, and to get a realistic price, based on that lower bound, based on some previously discussed potential strip mine sizes, based on the size of the big anomoly.
I don't think $17.00 is bad, for what I think is probably a worst-case scenario. I'm expecting better, actually, as future cores come in! I won't be selling...
