Le Penseur's Profile

Schooled in Ottawa, in the Air Force for 11 years, then the gov for 11 years...part-time singer (tenor)... I have gone back (way back) to my roots as a hunter gatherer...I hunt for the deals and gather the valuables that others have overlooked or left behind...happy hunting!

Le Penseur's Posts

NAV - net asset value

Those who are complaining that this was worthy of a halt or that it didn't meet their expectations should reconsider the VALUE of this milestone. It has been hanging over us for many months now. Whether it was worthy of a halt? I don't know.


What I do know is that is was worthy of drawing attention to and it was material to our NAV...and if only for that purpose, then the halt was worth it. I had a lot of anticipation for this news and am a little dissapointed, but I recognize that the gap between my expectations and the reality, is not KWG's to fill. I have t attenuate my expectations.


It is up to me to recognize the forward / upward trend of news and continue to support managment, in spite of the fact that it is taking much longer than I would have thought or hoped for. This is yet another positive move on the ROF chess board IMHO.


GLTA KWG longs


Le Penseur

almost 8 years ago
Re: Crux of the matter...hidden assumption?

Hey GH-r


I have been here since the Spyder days and was there when we wee counting votes...I have enjoyed your posts and agreed with manyof them, but in this case I think that you have launched your train of thought based on an unconfirmed assumtion.


Simply put a PP by management would be driven by the need for capital, which in essence is a need to support the company goals. Your arguments seem to presuppose that the ultimate goal for the dual share structure is to dilute the outstanding float. I do recognize that dilution is a possibility in the future, but what makes you think that we could have gone on to develop company goals WITHOUT any future dilution. The money ran out last Sept...the staff have been paying themselves with shares, and eventuall selling them on the open market, OUT OF NECESSITY. Everybody has BILLS to pay.


If the decision to issue more TREASURY shares is made by management, then we have to trust that it will be for the sole purpose of accomplishing company goals.


The CRUX for me is that in a chess game, you have to make preparatory placements on the board, so that you are ready with all of your options open, when the opportunity comes for the BIG move. It would be very sad to witness the evolution of the FSDI opportunity, only to see it wither on the vine because we haven't decluttered the investment threshold for large investors. Yes I am concerned about further dilution but I think the total intrinsic value of KWG assets can support it in the long run.


If you had a crystal ball to see into the future and you could visualize the NAV of KWG in 1year, 3 year or 5 years from now (if not bought out before then) and saw that we are worth 1 to 5 billion dollars, would it matter to you that we have added a couple hundred million shares in order to survive the current gap in cashflow... and dilution is not even proposed at this point.


It is pure speculation (altough probable) on your part...but also probable is the fact that the upcoming news WILL create upward pressure on the share price which in turn will make ANY future possible PP more cost effective and LESS dilutive. I pretty sure that I haven't read that side of the argument in your posts.


Again I wish you and all KWG longs the best


JMHO... Le Penseur

about 8 years ago
Re: Please read your stuff!

Hey Barb,


Here's a post from my evil twin at stkhouse...Pear3 I think it's a good synopsis...food for thought or discussion.


On this issue, I don't think they are creating a new share "structure". Rather, they are adding to the existing one. Even though they are creating a "new" access point for institutional buyers, whom in the past were prohibited by self regulation. I still think the outstanding float will be calculated by individual shares... and with respect to further dilution...well, we were faced with that possibility anyway: We need money to prove Black Horse!!! I don`t for a minute, think that anyone`s intent was to disguise the large float, but rather to side step restrictive regulations imposed on the institutions. Furthermore, I think that the institutions will create demand by buying and not selling, thereby driving the price of both individual and super shares up. I think the institutions want to be in for the long haul , and as the sellers becomes rarer and rarer the ask will have to go higher. At one (or more) point there will be a private placement(s) but I think they will have a very precise purpose (drilling, development, M & A etc...) As the share price goes up, the amount of dilution will be inversely proportional and wont hurt as much as we may fear NOW, given that it will be accompanied by regular positive news releases and forward progress. We have to remember that whether the dilution occurs by the purchase of singles or supers, the funds received are proportional... so the super share do not create more dilution than the single shares...they just act as a multiple of the single share dilution. JMHO, good luck to all KWG longs, Pear3
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.kwg/kwg-resources-inc#g3qTtVqIlISdaKxm.99

about 8 years ago
ROF road vs RR...Ding,Ding Round 2

Hey Ringer,


JMO but the only way to build a cost-effective road is to build it AFTER the RR on the N/S corridor; the road cannot be cost-effective by any stretch of the imagination if it is built first. The RR is the mode that has the CAPACITY to become the BACKBONE of developement as well as the on-going local and provincial economies.


The building of the road can be done by widening the esker (where it is too narrow) with untold numbers of railcar loads of aggregate, which will be available when the mine(s) are being developped and/or running.


The FNs need a productive local economy and a significant improvement in quality of life. This can only be achieved cost-effectively by the railroad initially. You can't keep shipping materials and goods, at obscene premium costs, and then expect an economy to gain some traction from it.


Canada on the other hand, needs the ROF to kickstart the Ont/Can economy which will be achieved by mining activity supported by RAIL to the ROF on the N/S ESKER. This is not a difficult concept to understand, but unfortunately our ONT Liberal Wynnies, have made very bad and ignorant decisions, based in conflicted and dishonest EGO Pursuits.


Now.....the only thing that is holding them back is the detour that they had to take in order to wiggle out of possible liability from Cliffs, hoping that the delay might solve it for them by bankrucpting KWG. ( "We'll just wait them out, and pretend that we are observing due diligence by saying: We have to get this RIGHT" )


Fortunately we have had Frank on our side. He has stuck to sound principles when it comes to building value and positioning KWG on a strong footing for the future.


For the non believers, here are a few things that I consider he has done right:


1. he has negotiated a number of very important deals, while avoiding the accumulation of debt. Yes we have suffered a lot of dilution but this has brought a great deal of potential value to the company while minimizing the long-term risk; he has avoided the wasting of time and asset value, by concentrating on the battles that offered meaning, consequemce and potential future value;


2. he has navigated through many obstacles and landmines, without ever using retaliatory actions which might have resulted in burning bridges and alienating potential future investors/cooperators; the most obvious example of many would be resisting the launching of lawsuits at a time when making friends was of utmost importance to the future of the company. It is my impression that he was confident enough in KWG's position, to let all the noise die down before making his point, including the Chinese option.


3. he has implemented phases of his plan in a definitive and very imaginative manner, while communicating material information to investors in a timely fashion. When we were all debating the possibilities, Frank has on a few occasions presented us with a "game changer" that no one foresaw.... that's one reason I'm still here. When I felt impatient to see results, I always remeinded myself that Frank was probably working on something significant.


4. he has used the leverage that KWG has in its assets and used it to create strong loyal partnerships and possible future exponential gains. (examples: 1.NSR sale which created a solid treasury for KWG, 2.patent agreement with metallurgist which created a partnership withoput debt, 3,extension agreement with Bold/Fancamp which preserved BH as a vluable asset to us without creating debt or a loss of value, 4.the agreements with the Chinese (Rail, and Golden Share) which again managed future risk while amortizing the trade of asset value against near future services)


5. he has strategically formulated the message to KWG's partners, investors, and the media in such a way as to keep all options open. When the RR was being talked down by the Ont. Gov./ Cliffs / Noront, Frank was able to present our plan B (slurry pipe) in a plausible and credible manner, and defend our future prospects, even though it is my impression that the RR was always the preferred option. Currently, the RR has resurfaced as the forunner with the involvement of the Chinese. Consequently, in last week's BNN interview, Frank presented the proverbial "coup de grace" with a high degree of confidence, while avoiding what could have been an "in your face" message. By doing so he has avoided antagonizing future investors and/or partners. I.m just glad that he is playing on my team and not "playing" against me.


6. he has maintained healthy and open communication channels with the FNs of the ROF which in itself will proove to be as valuable as "aggregate in a marshland" since it will lay the foundation (pun intended) for a long lasting relation of development, investment and partnership in years to come.


Sorry about the length of this text...I guess I'm making up for being silent so long. My original point was that RR is the only way to go and now.....we have the MEANS, the BARGAINING POSITION, the CONFLUENCE of events to make that happen and make the ROF development, a series of events that will affect the global base metals market. Yes, still lots of work ahead but now it seems that the table is titlted slightly in our favor.


Good luck to all KWG and ROF investors


Le Penseur

almost 9 years ago
Good post from Pear3 on ST HS

Here is an interesting post from my twin PEAR3 on stockhouse...good synopsis for the newcomer. Have a good read, GLTA Le Penseur


Hey Marl Dog... I haven't posted here in a while but have honestly been entertained and amazed by the back and forth between some of the posters. Lou, I have often been very impressed by your research and your advance prognostications. I own KWG but none of NOT shares. I don't necessarily like to compare the two but they indeed face an entirely different set of possibilities.


Without rendering judgement, here is how I see it.

CURRENT CASH ON HAND-

NOT is in a very difficult situation if its current creditors choose not to RENEGOTIATE their credit facilities.

KWG owes nothing but has no cash at the present time (this doesn't seem to phase Frank given that he chose to lay-off all the staff instead of a new stock offering, a private placement or a reverse split)

POTENTIAL ASSET DEVELOPMENT -

NOT are land locked with there assets given that the nickel mine does not support the E W road option and shipping chromite is a non starter on that route. NOT has lots of chromite but no financial backing to develop and no prospects given the dilution and the heavy debt load; no other entity will touch them.

KWG has the N S esker claims which can support a rail option whether they win the appeal or not. KWG also has an independent source of chromite (BH) and potential willing partners to finance both the RR and the mine. (Chinese)

FUTURE CAPITAL RAISING & ASSET VALUES -

NOT has been forced to return to the exploration phase (presumably to increase asset value) when the next step seemed to have pointed in the direction of EA or PEA). All their deposits are worthless if they do not negotiate a FINANCIALLY FAVORABLE transport agreement for the long term. Nickel prices are down and show no reasonable prospect of changing the trend any time soon; chromite prices are steady and demand is rising, but they need to bring the profitability up significantly in order to make their deposits viable.

KWG has on top of its chromite, a number of assets that have yet to be valued, monetized and traded against near time services: 1. the RR which can bring a long term royalty (NSR) on total future shipments both mineral and freight; 2. the patent can generate significant revenue (if granted) but WILL IN ANY CASE lower KWG's production costs to an unparalleled level in world markets. A small portion of it can also be traded against the cost of patent confirmation with bulk sampling. 3. total tons of Ferrochrome or chromite can also produce an NSR due to its projected low production costs.

I am not going to call the prospects of either company but I will add the following facts/speculation:

1. the two companies depend on each other to a certain extent, but I think NOT needs KWG more than the reverse wrt presenting a viable course of action to their investors, for the development of their respective assets.

2. both need approvals from the Govs, but NOT has an edge in advancement, and KWG seems to have an edge with probability of profitability.

3. NOT has more volume of chromite but is faced with open pit mining (in marsh land; cost of processing will be higher because of hydro cost and quality of grade); KWG has lower volumes but the possibility of shaft mining and higher levels of concentration or grades. This fact alone opens the possibility of shipping both ferrochrome and ore worldwide, depending on what the market needs, at any specific time AND lowers processing costs.

4. If the Fed Gov gets involved and contributes a billion or more, they will examine the whole area, its history (including lawsuits and solvency of companies involved) and will have to go with the most attractive and potentially profitable from a global perspective.

It is my opinion that the Feds want to create a world leading industry (ferrochrome or stainless) for the next century, not just a couple of holes in the ground, and then brag about it in the commons. I am not sure that they will want to hand over the reigns to the Prov. Libs given their past record of fiscal incompetence.

For the Feds it's also an opportunity to reverse the poor quality of life that the FNs have endured since the signing of their treaties which in itself has raised eyebrows internationally.

Sorry for the length of this post...

almost 9 years ago
"Who has most to gain from lawsuit" from Stockhouse Pear3

I totally agree but who do you vote for....which party will actually develop the ROF from a National interest perspective...not the "backroom deal" practices of the Ont Liberals...Good luck to all KWG longs...Le Penseur



Most to gain from lawsuit


Many have debated the court case, its possible outcome and the possible reasons for delays as well as the rationale for NOT to continue it instead of striking a deal with KWG and as such initiating a win/win scenario. For me, there is only one reason for this court case to still be going on. Let's consider that the real big winner if the appeal is denied, is the Ont Gov. Not only do they save face by having their preferred option (road) but they also get to dictate who does what when. I am convinced that NOT have been pressured (if not blackmailed) to continue the lawsuit, under the threat of having their own process delayed from withholding of approvals throughout various phases of the future development. We have all witnessed how dishonest and unlawful the Ont Gov has been in other decisions within our economy. These decisions led to monumental financial losses, which many members of the Gov denied and covered up. In my opinion the same kind of unethical influence is being exercised so that they (Ont Gov) obtain their desired outcome...why else would they have jumped into the middle of a heated legal process between two publically traded companies after having sided with one of them and approving a $600 million grant to build a private road for that company...those decision makers should be charged with abuse of public trust...GOVs should not be trying to pick winners and then placing bets on them...its unethical and illegal. I hope that at one point a whistleblower from within the ranks of the Ont Gov decides to do the right thing when the time is right...JMHO Good luck to all KWG and NOT longs PEAR3


Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/c.kwg/kwg-resources-inc#uCyfdvKZ40CsiWJB.99

about 9 years ago
Le Penseur
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