We'll still have to wait for more information to come in, but here's my current thoughts regarding Amungee, and the Beetaloo Basin:

Given the 'newness' of the exploration in this area, and not having much to directly compare it to, I didn't really have any expectations or predictions on what the results of the Amungee flow testing would be.

I did, however, have my 'hopes' of what the flow testing results 'might' be, ...and unfortunately it was a hell of a lot higher than what we've been told so far.

.4 - .6 MMscf/d ...with spikes over 1 MMscf/d?

If this was a vertical development well in an already producing field, that might be a good result. But for a horizontal well, in the middle of nowhere, off in the desert, in a largely unproven basin? ...I'm sorry, but as far as I'm concerned, those flow rates just aren't going to cut it.

I have a theory now as to why Falcon issued the interim RNS update. I think it might be because the flare was clearly visible from the highway, allowing those in the area to get a good look at it and estimate the well performance. It appears to me that the flare must have looked far more impressive in the amateur video that was posted the other day with the news article, than it did in real life. So perhaps Falcon, in the spirit of disclosure, felt it was best to update the broader market.

While I was optimistic, I had a feeling that something 'wasn't quite right', just by the way the share price was behaving. It looks as though perhaps others seemed to 'know' that the results so far were nothing to write home about.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not dismissing the whole Beetaloo Basin, or even the Amungee well itself. Rates may improve and stabilize somewhat. Plus, in the future they have the opportunity to improve upon their drilling, completion, and stimulation practices, to potentially achieve better results. So I'm looking forward hearing Origin's assessment on these and other items at the conclusion of the testing program.

Nevertheless, given the costs involved with horizontal drilling into shale formations, coupled with the remoteness of the acreage, ...I think they're going to need MUCH better results from flow testing than what we've seen so far.

just my opinion

Great find from "dprussky" on the LSE (UK) board:

"Onlookers drawn to flare with gas company Origin fracking exploratory well in Northern Territory"

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-22/fracked-gas-exploration-well-flare-origin-energy/7865526?pfmredir=sm&WT.mc_id=newsmail

jmo

As far as some possible near-term value drivers for Falcon, here's my current take on the situation:

Having a 30 percent interest in such a large project as the Beetalo is a fairly large amount for a small company like Falcon.

If test results are positive, I think they may have the opportunity to farm down some additional interest, say 10-15%, to another player who may have interest in the project, as well as a longer time horizon to see through the political ups and downs, development challenges, etc.

It's just speculation of course, but I think such players may include companies like Impex, who would be interested in securing future supplies for Japan, or Total, who recently got out-bid by Exxon with the Interoil takeover just to the north in PNG, ..., companies of that ilk. Perhaps even Origin or Sasol themselves. I know Falcon has given indications in the past of holding on longer through the 'proving up' stage, but things change, and if the right offer comes along, you never know.

First things first though. Let's get some good test results, and then hopefully we'll start to see a 'thawing out' in the political situation, which I suspect will be the case, given the potential economic benefits involved.

As for South Africa and the Karoo, I'm not really sure what to make of it at this point. I haven't really focused much on it.

Also, and I realize this is a longshot, but there's still entire major zones in Falcon's Mako Trough acreage in Hungary that haven't been fully or adequately tested yet. So perhaps someone out there (or perhaps Falcon themselves) would be willing to give it another go at some point.

just my opinion

"Re-entering the horizontal Amungee NW-1H well is scheduled for mid-June 2016, followed by a multi-stage fracture stimulation programme to test the Middle Velkerri "B" shale reservoir."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/falcon-oil-gas-ltd-technical-060000152.html

Jobs leaking from oil and gas exploration sector as Northern Territory debates fracking moratorium

"A Northern Territory construction company says it's losing contracts and will shed workers because of Labor's proposed moratorium on fracking.

This week it was revealed that Pangaea Resources had suspended its drilling program on the Sturt Plateau, citing uncertainty around fracking as one of the main reasons, with NT Labor promising to put a moratorium in place if it wins this year's election."

"He said Labor's proposed moratorium had not just affected Pangaea, but was ruining business confidence across the NT's entire oil and gas sector."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-02/jobs-lost-as-northern-territory-debates-fracking-moratorium/7211626

I don't know if such a measure would go through, but if it did, it would clearly be an unwelcomed development for Falcon.

I wonder if this, at least in part, is the reason for the weakness in Falcon's share price,...particularly in London trading recently.

jmo