As far as some possible near-term value drivers for Falcon, here's my current take on the situation:
Having a 30 percent interest in such a large project as the Beetalo is a fairly large amount for a small company like Falcon.
If test results are positive, I think they may have the opportunity to farm down some additional interest, say 10-15%, to another player who may have interest in the project, as well as a longer time horizon to see through the political ups and downs, development challenges, etc.
It's just speculation of course, but I think such players may include companies like Impex, who would be interested in securing future supplies for Japan, or Total, who recently got out-bid by Exxon with the Interoil takeover just to the north in PNG, ..., companies of that ilk. Perhaps even Origin or Sasol themselves. I know Falcon has given indications in the past of holding on longer through the 'proving up' stage, but things change, and if the right offer comes along, you never know.
First things first though. Let's get some good test results, and then hopefully we'll start to see a 'thawing out' in the political situation, which I suspect will be the case, given the potential economic benefits involved.
As for South Africa and the Karoo, I'm not really sure what to make of it at this point. I haven't really focused much on it.
Also, and I realize this is a longshot, but there's still entire major zones in Falcon's Mako Trough acreage in Hungary that haven't been fully or adequately tested yet. So perhaps someone out there (or perhaps Falcon themselves) would be willing to give it another go at some point.
just my opinion
