WtlessB,
Rough tally of 40% is just great. Thanks for your effort.
There are a few things that would need to be clarified so that we would be on the same page, e.g. 40% FD? Feel free to correct if I am off with my numbers below.
1. OS: ~90.8M, and FD: 105M; suggestion:use FD for the percentage calculation.
2. Assuming that all wts will be in the money and exercised; e.g. 5.6M wts will be exercised at $2.10 by AEM to bring their total shares to 7.3M (they sold some) + 5.6M = 12.9M/105 = 12.28%FD.
3. PSU: 13%FD??? Presumably you have not yet got all the responses to your call. Noted that a few have replied, including the large chunk, 1% (FD?), from NSS.
3. Outside major investors: Not sure if you are at the liberty to reveal the identities. If not, some general indication (no names) would be informative, e.g. fund #1: ?, fund #: ?, etc.
Question and notes:
- BoD and Management have indicated that they will vote their 4.6Ms with G, so presumably this mean they will have a combined votes of 4.6 + 8.4 = 13Ms.
- Important note: 13M/105M = 12.38%FD. But if the total vote turnout for the Special Meeting in early March(?) is only, say 60% of the FD, or 60% x 105 = 63M shares then the percentage for 13Ms, using the actual votes, would be 20.63% (66.7% required).
Another example, AEM 12.9Ms would be come 12.9/63=20.47% of the actual total votes, and we need 33.4 - 20.47 = 12.93% of 63M shares to block the 66.7% required to pass the current deal with G.
AEM will not miss the vote (unless they decide to join force with G, heaven forbid) but everyone of us retails will need to cast our NO votes to provide that 12.93% of 63Ms (or 8.15Ms to block the deal).
BTW, there will be a flood of telephone calls from callers representing PRB or G soliciting our support for the proposed deal. They have our telephone numbers. We could have a little chit chat, but we don't need to reveal anything...keep them guessing, lol. Or, we could tell the canvassers that $5 is a low-ball offer, so it's a quick NO. But 10 would make decision a bit more complicated (sell half and let the other half ride?).
goldhunter
