Zenyatta Ventures Ltd

over 9 years ago

What will be interesting, will the Tesla Primary Focus be "Cars" or this new "Home Storage Battery" as demand and pre-orders have unexpectly soared.

"Which raised an interesting question from Barclay’s auto industry analyst Brian Johnson: Might Tesla decide to pivot away from the auto industry to focus more on energy storage?"

“It’s possible,” replied Musk. “All we know right now is we have demand well in excess of our production ramp.”

"Given the complexity and heavy capital investment for automobiles, might stationary power deliver a better return, Johnson asked?"

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2015/05/06/tesla-says-demand-for-powerwall-battery-storage-will-outstrip-electric-cars/

Pre-order Demand for the new storage batteries announced 30 Apr 2015, "Powerwall" and "Powerpack" is 3.1 million kWh, which will require 1922 tonnes "Battery Grade" graphite. (0.62 kg graphite/kWh, Car equivalent for Model S is 85 kWh or 54 kg per vehicle)

Planned 2015 Car production 55,000 units for the Model S and X =2970 tonnes of "Battery Grade" Graphite and 500,000 vehicles by 2020. GigaFactory initial production planned 1Q/2016)

Power packs are Sold out until summer 2016. Together these orders are more than half the number of packs used in Tesla’s total vehicle production since 2008.

More research;

Powerwall, 7 ($3000) & 10 ($3500) kWh units (up to x9 units per home) (Model S – 85 kWh)

Powerpack, 100 kWh commercial units

Typical “Family of 4” uses 800 kWh/month or 27 kWh/day (Ontario summer rates off peak 8 cent/kWh, double during peak hours plus Global Adjust for Power Loss + Delivery + Regulatory Charges + Debt Retirement + HST less 10% ON Clean Energy Benefit)

My Bill,

Electricity Used 547.224 kWh $45.74 = 8.38 cents/kWh, Total Charges $131.31 = 24 cents/kWh

Demand – Commercial 2500 orders (x10 Powerpacks each or 25,000 units)

25k x 100 kWH = 2.5M kWh

Residential 30,000 orders (each order 1.5 – 2 Powerwalls)

60K x 10 kWh = 600K kWh

Total 3.1M kWh / Model S 85 kWh Battery Pack = 36,470 car battery packs (equivalent)

Total Graphite 0.62 kg/kWh x 3.1M = 1,922,000 kg Battery Grade Graphite or 1,922 tonnes

(2015 Car – 55,000 units x 54kg = 2970 tonnes “Battery Grade” graphite, 2020 – 500,000 units)

How much battery-grade graphite will Tesla need?

Let's return now to Tesla and its proposed gigafactory. We know that the 500,000 EVs that Tesla has planned for 2020 will require a total of 35 GWh of energy storage. We now need to determine how much graphite will be contained in those batteries.(currently 55,000 Model S and X cars in 2015)

The Department of Energy estimates that graphite constitutes approximately 16% weight of a typical lithium-ion battery. The Panasonic spec sheet for its 18650 batteries indicates that each cell weighs 45 g, which means that the 7,104 cells in the 85 kWh battery pack for the 2013 Tesla Model S weigh approximately 320 kg. We can therefore estimate that these batteries use approximately 0.62 kg of graphite/kWh storage capacity - over 54 kg of graphite per 85kWh vehicle. Note that the battery pack for a Tesla Model S is approximately four times the capacity of a "standard" battery EV.

This translates into approximately 21,600 t of graphite required for the 500,000 batteries [each with 70 kWh capacity] needed in 2020. However, we need to account for the relatively low [30%] yield of battery-grade graphite, using current processing methods. This means that some 72,050 t of graphite feedstock would actually be required for these batteries at those yields.

Using today's prices for synthetic [~$20,000/t] and coated spheroidal natural graphite [~$10,000/t], all other things being equal, a switch from all-synthetic to all-natural-graphite anodes for those 500,000 EVs/year would save $216M in material costs, which translates to over $6/kWh, or over $430 per vehicle. Not a bad start.

On top of the batteries for its EVs, Tesla will need a further 9,250 t of graphite for the additional 15 GWh/year of non-EV capacity at the gigafactory, which in turn, would require 30,900 t of graphite feedstocks for the production of battery-grade materials, at current yield levels.

This is a total of just under 30,900 t of graphite in the batteries, requiring 102,900 t of feedstocks using current processing methods and yields. This is over 125% of the global natural flake graphite market, currently at 80-85,000 t/year!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2108313-going-natural-the-solution-to-teslas-graphite-problem

these batteries use approximately 0.62 kg of graphite/kWh storage?

Long-term, Musk said, “I think we’ll see demand for stationary storage to be approximately double that of the car.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2015/05/06/tesla-says-demand-for-powerwall-battery-storage-will-outstrip-electric-cars/

http://industrial.panasonic.com/lecs/www-data/pdf2/ACA4000/ACA4000CE240.pdf

its 18650 batteries indicates that each cell weighs 45 g, which means that the 7,104 cells in the 85 kWh battery pack for the 2013 Tesla Model S weigh approximately 320 kg

320kg / 7104 = 45.045 g (spec sheet 46.5g)