Last year I posted this about the US markets:
In case anyone is still on the board..The long awaited correction may have begun
posted on Jul 02, 15 04:25PM Use the IP Check tool [?]
The SPX monthly MACD has moved to a sell signal. In the last 20 years there have been only 4 such signals – on two occasions the outcome was a steep correction, the other two times a full-on bear market. I believe a correction (10-20%) is more likely than a true bear market.
And now?
It's starting to look like the correction could be over. At the lowest point, the SPX was only down 15% - within a year and a half long consolidation pattern. It looks like it has broken out to the upside and the Monthly MACD is on the verge of of a buy signal. In the last 20 years, there have only been 4 previous monthly buy signals – each one has led to a major move lasting for years. August and September are historically weak, but as long as they are not down in a big way, we will get the buy signal.
I constantly get emails from the doom and gloomers telling me why the market has to crash. European banks collapsing, negative interest rates, Brexit, worldwide economic slowdown, high levels of complacency and greed, terrorism, ISIS, Trump, yada yada yada. Lots of compelling reasons to sell stocks and head for the hills. Yet the market just seems to get stronger. My thoughts are that there has never been a time in history when the world has been trouble-free, and since central bankers continue to add liquidity, there is no reason why stocks cannot go up.
The gold bugs have come out of the woodwork – many of them are permabears who have been wrong for many years, but can now at least talk about the yellow metal with an air of confidence. A lot of them are convinced that rising gold means markets will fall, but there is no such requirement. It is quite possible that many different asset classes can rise together, and I believe that is what is currently happening. Of course we will have minor corrections along the way (we are overdue for one now), but the big picture looks like the bull is very much alive and well.
Next Musing - Venture
