Thanks for that Zpring. Lots to chew on. The only bold prediction is Russia invading Ukraine. While I don't consider that impossible (Putin wants to restore the empire), it just seems like it's too big a chunk to swallow. Russia would be the target of international sanctions - it would wreck their economy. I just don't think Putin would risk it.
As far as Peter's call for Dow going down to 6000, I just don't see it. The evidence is rather compelling that we are in a new secular bull market. Looks to me like we're still in the first leg up. Of course, we are due for a significant 20-30% correction at some point. Then we should get a really nice multi-year run - either a measured move similar to the last 5 years or possibly something much larger. I don't see any return to 2009 levels.
As for the current correction, I don't think it's the start of the big one. We should get at least one more rally into the spring.
